Also, I like like how almost nobody takes issue with a decade time interval. If he means that current LLMs, slowly plateauing in performance, would somehow take a decade to create AI (which he calls AGI)? Where would this fantastical gain in performance come from? Or he thinks it will be a different mechanism as a basis? But then what mechanism, it should be at least real in theory by now if it were to realize in a decade time.

Basically what I mean, is that if LLMs are future real AI basis, it would take less than a decade because they are in diminishing returns today. And if it is something completely new, then what exactly? And if it is something abstract, fuzzy and hypothetical, whence did a decade number come from?

This is basically Sam Altman's "5 to 10 years in the future"(1) all over again. Not less than 5 so as not to be verified in the near future, and no need to show at least something as a prototype or at least scientific theory. And no more than 10 year so as not to scare Softbank and other investors.

(1) https://fortune.com/2025/09/26/sam-altman-openai-ceo-superin...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jodiecook/2024/07/16/openais-5-...

https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/sam-altman-claims-agi-i...