> Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future.

Is it? Or is it based on the idea a load of white collar workers will have their jobs automated, and companies will happily spend mid four figures for tech that replaces a worker earning mid five figures?

I think companies that expect to use AI to cut their salary overhead making the same products they were before are going to get clobbered by companies that use AI to grow. A few people may have to retrain into a different line of work but I don't really see AI putting people out of work en masse.

From what I've seen, the most-compelling thesis involves robotics. We're seeing evidence that LLMs tokenising physical inputs can operate robots better than previous methods. If that's pans out, the investment thesis is secured. No AGI needed.

Why not both? :)