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Aurornis 2 days ago

> "For the pre-Fed period (1790-1913), the average annual inflation was 0.4 percent with a coefficient of variation of 13.2. During the period 1941-2016, these figures changed to 3.5 percent and 0.8, respectively. If we look at the post-Volcker era (1988-2016), annual inflation was 2.2 percent on average with a coefficient of variation of 0.4." -

Citing an average number is misleading since the chart of the value of a dollar during that time looks like a zig-zag with some massive swings in both directions. This means periods of severe deflation, too, which can be very bad for people.

It definitely was not flat or consistently near zero, though citing an average number is a great way to give that impression.

wredcoll a day ago | parent | next [-]

Maybe a better metric is some kind of yearly median, i.e what you would actually experience living year by year.

dragonwriter a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> Citing an average number is misleading

Not when you are also citing the coefficient of variation it isn’t.

> since the chart of the value of a dollar during that time looks like a zig-zag with some massive swings in both directions.

Uh, exactly the claim made, “we have accepted higher inflation in order to achieve stable inflation that is predictable.” (emphasis added)

Characterizing this as a bad thing is, IMO, quite bonkers, but so is denying that it is exactly what has happened.