This is the key insight I believe. It is inherently unpredictable. There are species that pass the mirror test with a far fewer equivalent number of parameters than large models are using already. Carmack has said something to the effect that about 10ksloc would glue the right existing achictectures together in the right way to make agi, but that it might take decades to stumble on that way, or someone might find it this afternoon.

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palmotea a day ago | parent [-]

> Carmack has said something to the effect that about 10ksloc would glue the right existing achictectures together in the right way to make agi

What does he know about that?

	▲	galangalalgol 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Well, he heads a company devoted to creating AGI, so admitting success in research is inherently unpredictable is surprisingly honest. As to whether his estimate that we have the pieces and just need to assemble them correctly is itself correct, I can only say it is as likely to be correct as any other researcher in the field. Which is to say its random.