Are researchers scared to just come out and say it because they'll be labeled as wrong if the extreme tail case happens?

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andy_ppp 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

No, it’s because of money and the hype cycle.

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ionwake 2 days ago | parent [-]

I mean you say this, but I havent touched a line of code as a programmer in months, having been totally replaced by AI.

I mean sure I now "control" the AI, but I still think these no AGI for 2 decades claims are a bit rough.

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andy_ppp a day ago | parent | next [-]

I think AI is great and extremely helpful but if you’ve been replaced already maybe you have more time now to make better code and decisions? If you think the AI output is good by default I think maybe that’s a problem. I think general intelligence is something other than what we have now, these systems are extremely bad at updating their knowledge and hopelessly at applying understanding from one area to another. For example self driving cars are still extremely brittle to the point of every city needing new and specific training - you can just take a car with controls on the opposite side to you and safely drive in another country.

	▲	ionwake a day ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah i agree. However like ... I don't understand why you think I am making bad decisions? I'm a self made ( to an extent ) millionaire, I am doing ok

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rootusrootus a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't want to sound mean, but c'mon, the reality is that if you haven't touched a line of code in months, you are/were not a programmer. I love Claude Code, it really has its moments. But even for the stuff it is exceptionally good at, I have to regularly fix mistakes it has made. And I only give it the fairly easy stuff I don't feel like doing myself.

	▲	ionwake a day ago \| parent \| next [-]
		It is ok brother I can handle the accusation. Perhaps after 2 decades... I really am no longer a programmer?
	▲	andy_ppp 16 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		100% Agree

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an0malous a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Let’s see the code

	▲	ionwake a day ago \| parent [-]
		pls no

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strangattractor 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They are afraid to say it because it may affect the funding. Currently with all the hype surrounding AI investors and governments will literally shower you with funding. Always follow the money:) Buy the dream - sell the reality.

	▲	strangattractor 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Also I think Andrej is just an honest guy.

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Goofy_Coyote 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I don’t think they’re scared, I think they know it’s a lose-tie game.

If you’re correct, there’s not much reward aside from the “I told you so” bragging rights, if you’re wrong though - boy oh boy, you’ll be deemed unworthy.

You only need to get one extreme prediction right (stock market collapse, AI taking over, etc ), then you’ll be seen as “the guru”, the expert, the one who saw it coming. You’ll be rewarded by being invited to boards, panels and government councils to share your wisdom, and be handsomely paid to explain, in hindsight, why it was obvious to you, and express how baffling it was that no one else could see what you saw.

On the other hand, if predict an extreme case and you get it wrong, there’s virtually 0 penalties, no one will hold that against you, and no one even remembers.

So yeah, fame and fortune is in taking many shots at predicting disasters, not the other way around.