This seems to be the growing consensus.

There is a very strange totally coincidental correlation where if you are smart and NOT trying to raise money for an AI start-up, you think AGI is far away, and if you are smart and actively raising money for an AI start-up, then AGI is right around the corner. One of those odd coincidences of modern life

	▲	chrismorgan a day ago \| parent [-]
		Mind you, such a correlation can be reasonable—the Yesses work for something because they believe it, while the Noes don’t because they don’t. (In this instance, I’m firmly a No, and I don’t say such a correlation is reasonable, due to the corrupting influence of money plus hype sweeping people along, which I think are much more common. But there will still be at least some that are True Believers, and it does make sense that they would then try to raise money to achieve their vision.)