It’s clear a lot of good fundamental innovation is still happening in the EV space (as opposed to IMO negative innovation in digital features in ICE cars). This is why I leased my electric car; my family’s pattern is to keep a car forever (ICE car is circa 2009) and I don’t want to be stuck with something. I think resale value partially captures this problem.

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smoovb 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

I was doing the math on leasing an EV and really seems to work. With the EV deprecation, you are actually coming out ahead of buying in many cases. A friend did this with a Kia a few years ago and looks like its a valid option.

	▲	rootusrootus a day ago \| parent [-]
		It works because the manufacturers are willing to defer the hit and eat the depreciation themselves in three years. If the leases were honest and the residuals accurate, it would be a wash with buying.

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specialist 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Also, OC wrote:

> Battery-as-a-service models are emerging as a potential lifeline...

Not for consumers. Maybe for fleet vehicles.

The rate of innovation has to slow down before that kind of standardization can take hold. And battery tech, from the chemistry to the packs, shows no sign of slowing down in the immediate future.

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specialist 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Agreed. The OC conflates a lot of unrelated & outdated issues, yet doesn't get near the most likely cause: Leasing.

Many of the EV influencer/reviewers (that I binge watch) do advise leasing over purchasing. Misc reasons (at least in the US):

Continued high rate of improvement. So for EV enthusiasts (early adopters), who are likely to upgrade, leasing avoids eating the entire depreciation in value.

Manufacturer incentives for new purchases drive down used car prices.

Many of the models are simply too expensive. (Esp with the current overstock.) Their resale value will normalize once new EVs reach price parity with comparable ICEs.

With so many leases expiring, there's more supply than demand (for used EVs).

Anecdatally, I held off buying (or leasing) a new Kia EV9 this year. It's just too expensive; implicitly reflected in their generous incentives. Kia's software is still immature. Knowing I don't intend to keep the vehicle, with their turrible resale value, I wasn't able to stomach the depreciation.

FWIW, My future perfect vehicle is a Toyota Sienna EV, over 350mi range, fast charging, and equiv to Tesla's software.

I predict, based totally on vibes, that sales of city cars (eg Kia Kona, Nissan Leaf) will be just fine once their price is 1:1 with ICE. Ditto roadtrippers (eg VW ID.Buzz) once their range is over 300mi.

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xp84 2 days ago | parent [-]

> leasing avoids eating the entire depreciation in value

Assuming the bank's predictions are correct, that's not true. The lease agreement simply predicts a specific residual value and you pay the difference between that and the purchase price (in other words, the full predicted depreciation amount) in your payments. Of course, the less you drive the leased car compared to your mileage allowance, the worse you do, since the residual value prediction assumes you used all 10k miles a year or whatever.

Not saying leasing is bad, just that the opportunity for them to be a better deal strictly financially depends mostly on whether the bank overestimates the residual value (as I suspect happened with my off-lease used EV, which cost me less than half the sticker price, with 16k miles, at 3 years old).

	▲	rootusrootus a day ago \| parent [-]
		My observation is that the manufacturers (who are originating the majority of leases) are intentionally eating the depreciation and going with unrealistically high residuals in order to make the leases more attractive. Just another way of structuring an incentive to move cars off the lot.