China is facing a demographic cliff that is potentially catastrophic.

I remember Japan talking about replacing its similar demographic problems with robots.

Didn't happen. Now ai and robotics is apparently progressed... But I'm guessing this will be some grand vision in the CCP to save their country, while at the same time fulfill the CCPs great desire for a totally controlled and subservient workforce.

Much like the Cold war, there's a lot of scare that can be built into that. Which corporations can use to get a whole lot of sweet government and military money.

But almost everything that was held up as an existential threat to democracy in the USSR turned out to be overblown in the best case, an outright fraud or smokescreen frequently.

As we can see from the Ukraine invasion, corruption in the military and control structures follows these authoritarian regimes. China also has this problem.

China was functioning well under reduced Deng Xiaoping rulership, but Xi is a typical purge and control authoritarian, which implies bad things about China's long term economic health.

Between the authoritarianism, demographic cliff, and possibly a massive real estate/finance bomb, China will probably have to become expansionist.

But they have nuclear frenemies all on their borders: Japan (effectively), Russia, Pakistan, India. They can be blockaded from petroleum access with a single us carrier group, which will happen if they invade Taiwan and I don't think they can help themselves.

But what do I know.

Where are you from and what's the TFR there ?

>They can be blockaded from petroleum access with a single us carrier group, which will happen if they invade Taiwan and I don't think they can help themselves.

I doubt it. This is just an armchair general's cope that's so faulty that I don't know where to start attacking it from.

Since Clinton's 1990s show of force in the Taiwan straits, China has built up a formidable navy, esp. their submarine forces. Within the straits, their AA/AD web, SOSUS, etc. guarantees they have freedom of action. Moving further, they have a strong submarine component that can seriously threaten any blockading forces.

They're also the world's sixth largest oil producer, and Naval War College [0] estimates suggest that they can stretch their emergency reserves to 8 years if they enforce, say, 45% rationing.

That's before you factor in that you'd be blockading up to 60% of the world's seaborne cargo volume, both from China, Japan, South Korea, etc. Unprecedented in the whole of human history.

Then there's their formidable 5th-gen. air force that can dominate South Korea, Japan, etc. easily, nuclear weapons that guarantee they won't lose any territory, and the massive economic whiplash the entire West will face as a result.

India might hate China, but it wants a multipolar world and won't help the West cut them down to size. So, they won't assist with the blockade.

The rest of Southeast Asia's economies are deeply interconnected with China, and they don't want to stir up their wrath, so they might condemn them, but won't even wave a stick at them.

Give it up, man.

[0]: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl...