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AI is a bubble, just admit it
12 points by zerosizedweasle 9 hours ago | 19 comments

If AI revenue by 2030 needs to be more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia just to recoup the costs of depreciation on the chips then it's a bubble.

seydor 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

What if we admit it and also approve it?

Stock pumping is this generation s real estate

gooodvibes 7 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Sure, some companies and products might be overvalued - so what?

Why do some people insist on screaming about this from the rooftops?

farseer 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Chips are unlike cars and there is very little wear and tear. If depreciation of Chips and subsequent losses is your criteria of how this bubble will burst, you may be in for a rude awakening. With Moor's law already finished, the Chips can be used for at least a decade or more even with lower efficiency and more power usage.

raw_anon_1111 15 minutes ago | parent [-]

The failure rate of GPUs is quite high.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-g...

leakycap 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Forecasting the global AI market revenue in 2030 when we're only about 1,000 days since ChatGPT launched seems unlikely to be accurate

zerosizedweasle 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah but that's where the numbers need to be to make the current spending add up.

fullshark 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Good luck timing the burst, everything is a bubble

WorldPeas 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Check out page 6 chart 1 "US real GDP growth contribution from tech capex"

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/ins...

ImPrajyoth 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Earth is?

foobarbaz33 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Possibly yes. Artificially kept going by the Sun and Earth's own molten core. Once those go out out it's game over for earth.

delichon an hour ago | parent [-]

Earth appears to be generating at least one species that is capable of atomic matter to energy conversion. Maybe it is planning ahead.

cranberryturkey 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A bubble much like the dotcom bubble. but the internet didn't go away...it was flourishing 3 years later.

zerosizedweasle 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah but those companies went bankrupt.

cranberryturkey 9 hours ago | parent [-]

True...the ones that raised $2M with just a domain name and vaporware. THat's notwhat I'm seeing in AI right now

zerosizedweasle 8 hours ago | parent [-]

No, WorldCom and 360Networks were fiber companies. A lot of internet infrastructure companies went under.

cranberryturkey 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, but my point is the fundamental tech didn't disappear. Those companies failed but thousands have been flourishing ever since.

BoredPositron 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The infrastructure got delayed significantly.

zerosizedweasle 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I get your point. I'm not talking about AI in the future of the economy after the bubble burst settles. Or about the technology in the future. I'm talking about the cold hard economic calculus / numbers staring us near term in the face.

andsoitis 8 hours ago | parent [-]

I think the issue is your framing. You say “AI is a bubble…”, when I think you mean more something like “the gold rush around AI is a bubble…”