> Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue

I doubt that.

E.g. according to these charts, it's at least a quarter of profits: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/metrics/revenue-by-geo...

> so I'm also in the camp of "I don't think they are bluffing."

How big is Russian market do you think? They didn't quit even that, and here we are pretending that Apple is going to quit EU.

> They'd still have UK & Norway, both of which have a higher share of iOS than other European nations.

UK and Norway is ~75 million people

EU is 450 million people

> The US & China are much bigger, more important markets for Apple.

So, a wealthy US market with 350 million people is very important. Unlike the wealthy EU market with 450 million people which Apple can just easily abandon.

You are correct, I had my numbers mixed up. EU is 7% of Apple's app store revenue specifically, not total revenue.

Definitely makes it seem more likely they are bluffing in that case unless they plan on just selling dumb phones with no app store.