I wonder if it’s possible for to sensibly short stock based on RTO announcements?

Generally people don’t push for redundancies is companies growing organically.

If this is a signal I wonder what the lead time is before it starts to bite?

I think, two rounds of RTO reduce headcount by 4-6% and the company is still functional. Work packages are delegated to the folks who stay. Few months later lost key persons get replacement. It’s not like throwing 2/3 workforce and concentrating on core business.