> Cloud providers are currently “un-differentiated”, but there are three huge ones making profits and some small ones too. Hosting is an economy-of-scale business and so is inference.

Anybody who has worked in a compliance heavy segment (PCI-DSS, HIPAA, etc.) will tell you the big 3 clouds have very significant differences from the smaller players. The differentiation is not on compute itself, but on the product. It's partially why products like AWS Bedrock exist and are actively placing model providers both in competition with eachother and AWS itself which is exactly the market dynamic they should seek to avoid.

> The idea that OAI is un-differentiated is just weird. They have a massively popular consumer offering, a huge bankroll, and can continue to innovate on features. Their consumer offering has remained sticky even though Claude and Gemini have both had periods of being the best model to those in the know.

This is exactly where this line of reasoning goes off the rails. The consumer market is problematic (see the recent post about the segment its growing in; basically young women of limited spend in low income countries); a huge bankroll is also a huge liability, model providers are on a clock to get huge or die, and the innovation we are seeing is effectively attempting to "scale-up" models, not provide novel features.

> Their consumer offering has remained sticky even though Claude and Gemini have both had periods of being the best model to those in the know.

This isn't a good thing with current market mix.

> And generally speaking there are huge opportunities to do enterprise integrations and build out the retooling of $10T of economic activities, just with the models we have now; a Salesforce play would be a natural pivot for them.

Do you have any indication these are achieving buy in or profitable? Most significantly, we have seen a recent study by MIT that 95% of generative AI pilots fail. The honeymoon period is rapidly coming to a close. Tangible results are necessary.