> Moore will continue to exponentially decrease costs over time as with all other workloads.

There's absolutely no guarantee of this. The continuation of Moore's law is far from certain (NVIDIA think it's dead already).

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timschmidt a day ago | parent [-]

> NVIDIA think it's dead already

Perhaps that's what Jensen says publicly, but Nvidia's next generation chip contains more transistors than the last. And the one after that will too.

Let me know when they align their $Trillions behind smaller less complex designs, then I'll believe that they think Moore's law is out of juice.

Until then, they can sit with the group of people who've been vocally wrong about moore's law's end for the last 50 years.

Our chips are still overwhelmingly 2D in design, just a few dozen layers thick but billions of transistors wide. We have quite a ways to go based on a first principles analysis alone. And indeed, that's what chip engineers like Jim Keller say: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c01BlUDIlK4

So ask yourself how it benefits Jensen to convince you otherwise.

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adgjlsfhk1 a day ago | parent [-]

progress continues, but at far slower rates than they used to. nvidia has gained ~6x density in the past 9 years (1080 to 5090), while a doubling every 2 years would be >20x density in 9 years. the past 6 years (3090) are even worse with only a 3x of density

	▲	timschmidt a day ago \| parent [-]
		Moore's law says nothing about density. "The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year." Density is one way in which industry has met this observation over decades. New processes (NMOS, CMOS, etc) is another. New packaging techniques (flip chip, BGA, etc). New substrates. There's no limit to process innovation. Nvidia's also optimizing their designs for things other than minimum component cost. I.e. higher clock speeds, lower temperatures, lower power consumption, etc. It may seem like I'm picking a nit here, but such compromises are fundamental to the cost efficiency Moore was referencing. All data I've seen, once fully considered, indicates that Moore's law is healthy and thriving.