There are contrary trends: LLM’s are getting lots of efficiency improvements, but they’re being used more.

Which is more important? Understanding what happened so far is impossible without data, and those trends can change. It depends on what new technologies people invent, and there are lots of smart researchers out there.

Armchair reasoning isn’t going tell us which trend is more important in the long term. We can imagine scenarios, but we shouldn’t be very confident about such predictions, and distrust other people’s confidence.