I think you've shown Polymarket comments are crap. But I'd say that for every venue on the internet except, occasionally, HN.

While there is legitimate concern around manipulation given Polymarket's thin volumes [1], there is limited evidence that the broader value of prediction markets applies to them [2]. (I started taking it seriously after Nate Silver hitched up his wagon [3].)

I'm sceptical of political predictions. I have limited respect for crypto. But on the balance, once you account for manipulation risk, it has a good track record. More pointedly to OP's question, I don't see any controversy around its adjudication and ability to pay.

[1] https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-politi...

[2] https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-sh...

[3] https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket

That's how the stock market works as well. The only people with actually valuable information are a very tiny fraction of the participants. And that's fine. Wisdom of crowds will still prevail.

Then why don’t you go bet against these people? You could be rich.