The underlying theory that the GP is getting at is that Japan and Germany were easy to rebuild because they had existing institutions and a society that trusted institutions. The idea is that it is kind of a self fulfilling prophecy; germany and Japan will "remember" how to be civilized, but under different leadership, Afghanistan and Iraq cannot revert to that.

It leans heavily on assumptions about countries and institutions.

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throaway5445454 9 hours ago | parent [-]

It's true to an extent, but its not what happened in Afghanistan.

	▲	dghlsakjg 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I don't doubt that, I was just explaining the argument. It has been recently popularized in tech circles by a viral appearance by professor Sarah Paine on the Dwarkesh podcast. I am fully willing to believe that the US royally fucked up the rebuild of Afghanistan.