Ya the early "studies" that said AI would benefit low skill more than senior never seem grounded in reality.

Coding with AI is like having a team of juniors that can complete their assignments in a few minutes instead of days. The more clear your instructions, the closer it is to what you wanted, but there are almost always changes needed.

Unfortunately it really does make the junior dev position redundant (although this may prove to be very short-sighted when all the SR devs retire).

I think the idea was that LLMs can allow someone who has no idea how to code, to write a prompt that can in fact output some working code. This is greatly raising their skill floor, as opposed to a senior where at best it’s doing something they already can do, just faster.

The elephant in the room being that if you aren’t senior enough to have written the code you’ll probably run into a catastrophic bug that you are incapable of fixing (or prompting the LLM to fix) very very quickly.

Really it’s just the next iteration of no-code hype where people dream of building apps without code, but then reality always come back to the fact that the essential skill of programmers is to understand and design highly structured and rigid logical systems. Code is just a means of specification. LLMs make it easier to leverage code patterns that have been written over and over by the hundreds of thousands of programmers that have contributed to its training corpus, but they can not replace the precision of thought needed to make a hand-wavy idea into a concrete system that actually behaves in a way that humans find useful.

I've never worked anywhere where the role of a Sr was to glue together a bunch of small pieces written by a team of Jr devs.

I've only worked places where Jr's were given roughly the same scope of work as a mid-level dev but on non-critical projects where they could take as much time as necessary and where mistakes would have a very small blast radius.

That type of Jr work has not been made redundant - although I suppose now its possible for a PM or designer to do that work instead (but if your PMs are providing more value by vibe coding non-critical features than by doing their PM work maybe you don't really need a PM?)