I don't think you can confidently say how it will pan out. Maybe OpenAI is only unprofitable at the 200/month tier because those users are using 20x more compute than the 20/month users. OpenAI claims that they would be profitable if they weren't spending on R&D [1], so they clearly can't be hemorrhaging money that badly on the service side if you take that statement as truthful.

[1] https://www.axios.com/2025/08/15/sam-altman-gpt5-launch-chat...

"OpenAI claims that they would be profitable if they weren't spending on R&D "

Ermmm dude they are competing with Google. They have to keep reinvesting otherwise Google captures the users OAI currently has.

Free cash flows matter. Not accounting earnings. On a FCFF basis they largely in the red. Which means they have to keep raising money, at some point somebody will turn around and ask the difficult questions. This cannot go on forever.

And before someone mentions Amazon... Amazon raised enough money to sustain their reinvestment before they eventually got to the place where their EBIT(1-t) was greater than reinvestment.

This is not at all whats going on with OAI.

>OpenAI claims [...]

If you're gonna buy at face value whatever Scam Altman claims, then I have some Theranos shares you might be interested in.