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martinald 4 days ago

Yes exactly.

Also to a certain degree you can just throw loads of GPUs at the problem.

So instead of 100k GB200s, you have ~1m of these cards. One thing china _is_ good at is is mass manufacturing.

There's all sorts of caveats to that, but I really think people are overlooking this scenario. I strongly suspect that they could ramp output of (much?) weaker cards far quicker than TSMC can ramp EUV fabrication.

Plus China has vastly superior grid infrastructure. They have a massive oversupply of heavy industry, so even if they hit capacity issues with such gargantuan amounts of cards I can easily see aluminium plants and what not being totally mothballed and supply rerouted to nearby newly built data centres.