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torginus 4 days ago

There's a very important point made in the article - with recent export controls, domestic Chinese firms don't need to beat Nvidia's best, but only the cut-down chips cleared for Chinese export.

jarym 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

The AI race is like the nuclear arms race. Countries like China will devote an inordinate amount of resources to be the best - it may take a year or two, but in the grand scheme of things that is nothing.

And NVIDIA will lose its dominance for the simple reason that the Chinese companies can serve the growing number of countries under US sanctions. I even suspect it won't be long before the US will try to sanction any allies that buy Chinese AI chips!

rhetocj23 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

China and Russia collectively have a talent pool dense enough to build future products and services the rest of the world uses, if China can produce comparative hardware for AI.

Simple example being TikTok.

Its just a matter of time really.

ponector 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

If russia has a dense talent pool why they are decades behind in chip design and manufacturing?

justapassenger 4 days ago | parent [-]

You need more than talent - founding, culture of entrepreneurship, government support, trust of partners, suppliers, etc.

Russia has none of that at the scale needed.

cshores 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Everything in china is a copy though. Even your example TikTok is a Vine clone

kamikazeturtles 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

The Europeans invented the car and Ford mass produced it.

Yet, we see Ford as extremely innovative and revolutionary. I think we can draw lots of parallels between a 19th and early 20th century industrializing US and current China.

overfeed 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

You may disparage TikTok as a Vine clone, but it redefined the state of the art for recsys algorithms. Google and Meta had to play catch-up with how quickly and how good TikTok is at discovering videos users find interesting out of the ocean of available content.

rhetocj23 3 days ago | parent [-]

Yeah its incredibly disrespectful to call TikTok just a vine clone.

Most of Meta's engagement comes from video content. Continuous engagement is how it is able to generate its revenue.

Thats all I need to say!

WhereIsTheTruth 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> And NVIDIA will lose its dominance

They are vendor locking industries, i don't think they'll loose their dominance, however, vendor locked companies will loose their competitiveness

greenpizza13 4 days ago | parent [-]

"lose" not "loose" please.

MangoToupe 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Indeed. You could (and probably should) view the export restrictions as a subsidy for chinese manufacturing.

TSiege 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

This is not true and a lot of Nvidi’s chips are smuggling into the country. There’s a ton of domestic pressure to be the leading chip producers. It’s part of China’s strategic plan called Made in China 2025