As big as search!? Doubtful. The entire globe is unlikely to be the addressable market. China will never let Waymo in. India will undoubtedly field multiple worthy competitors. Europe is hostile to technological progress and even more-so to American tech cos. In most parts of the world, Waymo is unlikely to be able to deliver a positive gross margin business given the per-capita-income of most places.

It could be a big business. In fact, I hope it is. Lives will be saved. But there is still a lot to be worked out, and the margins will never be as sweet as those of search.

Who pays for search though? Sure it's 100% margin, but it's 100% of not much.