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wanderingstan 3 days ago

More than that, I think the ride-hailing business is just the fist volley in the self driving vehicle space. It’s a short jump from there to self driving trucks, self driving package delivery, self driving private vehicles, and on and on.

Fricken 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

All of those spaces are actively being explored by various companies.

overfeed 3 days ago | parent [-]

Can any of those companies catch up on self-driving faster than Waymo can pivot to their niche? Cruise seemed to be a distant second, but did themselves in with an attempted cover-up.

Fricken 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Probably not.

Cruise was nixed by GM execs, whom I believe were looking for whatever excuse they could find to shut the operation down. They simply couldn't afford to stay in the game for the long haul. Cruise was under pressure to appear more capable than they were, and they took risks.

Waymo is distinguished in that it doesn't need to pander to nervous investors to keep getting money. The company is Sergei and Larry's baby. Google's founders will ensure that Waymo is patronized until it can stand on it's own.

overfeed 3 days ago | parent [-]

> ...I believe were looking for whatever excuse they could find to shut the operation down

Cruise's self driving license was suspended because humans displayed poor judgement by omitting from the official report details of their stopped car dragging a knocked-down accident victim under the car for dozens of feet. They took "risks" alright, and their harebrained cover-up was discovered by chance by the oversight body.

I believe any driver who covers up the details of injuries in an accident permanently lose their license, because they'll definitely do it again. What good is a self-driving subsidiary that can't operate on public roads?

to11mtm 3 days ago | parent [-]

I agree which is why I love that this is technically bait about various techs that want to claim/market to be 'Full Self Driving'.

shakna 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There are already self-driving trucks on the roads. Their pilots came earlier, because the problem space is much smaller.

They don't need to "catch up" to Waymo, because of the niche.

https://bigrigs.com.au/2024/04/18/driverless-trucks-trial-be...

overfeed 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> There are already self-driving trucks on the roads.

2 trucks?! I suppose that's the minimum number required to make your pluralization correct.

I will stand on my earlier statement regarding this particular outfit: they'll need to catch up because Waymo started class 8 variants in 2021 https://waymo.com/blog/search/?t=Waymo%20Via

shakna 3 days ago | parent [-]

That article also mentioned previous trials from other companies that are ongoing, from previous years.

And Volvo rolled a class 8 as well.

Grimburger 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I see Australia in the article and pardon my rampant scepticism, simply don't believe it.

Lo and behold:

>A six-month trial of driverless trucks on public Victorian roads has been put on hold just hours before it was meant to begin after the transport union labelled it “shambolic” and “sneaky”

> "the futures of our truck drivers are jeopardised due to this poorly executed plan."

> “It’s unacceptable that these trials are being pushed by corporations that continue to disadvantage our hard-working mums and dads that work day in, day out to carry Victorians.”

Now this sounds far more like the Australia I know.

Looks like the entire trial was scrapped due to union pressure and never resumed. Same reason we can't even have Driver-Only Operation on NSW trains, despite specifically purchasing DOO trains that operate safely worldwide.

https://ia.acs.org.au/article/2024/-shambolic---victorian-dr...

blinding-streak 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

And plenty have failed. Perhaps a smaller problem space but still really, really hard. Some self driving freight company failures: Starsky, TuSimple, Embark, Ghost, among others.

One promising self driving truck startup, Aurora, was forced to put a safety driver back in the driver's seat after testing in May.

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/aurora-driver-back-in-seat

intrasight 3 days ago | parent [-]

"Forced" by the truck maker, who was forced by their insurance company. All these companies will face that hurtle. I suggested to my girlfriend, who is a corporate defense attorney, that she get involved in this area of legal practice. It's a legal minefield.

blinding-streak 3 days ago | parent [-]

It does seem very messy! Will be some interesting precedents set over the next few years I imagine.

fragmede 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Buy a Comma.ai and install it in a supported vehicle, and just try it out. It doesn't talk to GPS, but it handles left right gas brake on the freeway well enough, and that's with two fairly shit optical cameras and a radar system. Granted, geohot helped start the company, and he's no slouch, but if their system is that good, a couple things are true. A) Lidar isn't necessary b) Extensive mapping that Waymo does also isn't necessary c) that last 10% gonna take 500% of the time to get to L3/4/5 autonomous, and that last 1% is maybe never. The other day I was in a Waymo, and there was a semi totally blocking the street, backing into a loading dock. The Waymo correctly identified that there was an object in the way, and stopped and did not plow into it. At first it crept up to the semi, blocking it from making progress as well. It might have started backing up, I've seen them do that, but I was already on the customer support line as soon as I saw the semi blocking the road.

Comma.ai is probably the purchase I'm most happy with this year (to be fair though, I buy a lot of crap off Temu). Drives are now just "get on the freeway, and just chill." Pay enough attention because it's not collected to GPS and just in case something goes wrong. So to be clear, Comma.ai is not autonomous driving, it's classified as an ADAS, advanced driving assistance program. It just makes driving suck that much less, especially in stop and go traffic, for $1,000, and compatible with recent vehicles that have built-in lane guidance features. Waymo's got to be light years ahead of them, given how much money they've spent, so it's my belief that Waymo's taking it very slow and cautious, and that their technology is much more advanced than we've been told.

mulmen 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

How does self-driving package delivery work? Who delivers the package?

wanderingstan 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

There are several “last meters” delivery robots developed.

Short range drones are being used in Australia.

And I heard of at least one company working with apartment architects to standardize a “port” on the building exterior to which a truck/robot would connect to “inject” packages to the inside.

somenameforme 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> "Short range [delivery] drones are being used in Australia."

Last I read (late 2023 IIRC) these were being cancelled in various areas, if not everywhere? People in neighborhoods were getting annoyed by the noise of drones buzzing overhead.

ethbr1 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Like some sort of "mail chute"?

wanderingstan 3 days ago | parent [-]

This was just an acquaintance some years ago in SF, but I recall it was fancier with conveyor belts and a protocol for the robot to communicate the size and weights of the packages being delivered.

groby_b 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tiny catapults. It's the only correct answer.

Sadly, this would still be an improvement on many smaller delivery services that especially Amazon is fond of using.

DiscourseFan 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

The slaves obviously.

But to be serious, there may be a way of doing it, it just seems very far off unless you're talking about Amazon hub or something like that, where it would be more feasible (but still difficult to achieve).