In addition to this, I think the headline is confused because the article later says: "UBS averaged the hard data together with inverted yield curve and credit markets to produce an aggregate recession probability of 52% for July..."

So 52%, not 93%, and I can't find a link to where UBS published this information.

But here are some other recent figures from UBS (or at least attributed to them):

2022-05-05: 0% https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-d...

2022-06-21: 40% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-hard-landing-u-economy-2...

2022-08-30: 60% https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ubs-raises-...

2023-07-19: Goldman Sachs says 20% https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-probabili...

2024-08-27: 25% https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ubs-wealth-management-rai...

I think the number is largely useless, and this article is even moreso.