Keep in mind that is actually a bet both that there is a recession and that the US government admits there's a recession. The odds of that are probably viewed as different than the odds of just a recession.

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DaveZale a day ago | parent [-]

yeah so true. Kind of like how the Fed sometimes misses on their actions, it's not realtime data, always looking months backward huh?

	▲	kentm a day ago \| parent [-]
		No, you're trying to draw an equivalence with the Fed here, and its not at all valid. The current US administration fired the BLS commissioner for a bad jobs report and is actively suing news outlets (and installing "fairness checkers" at others). That destroys credibility. There have been accusations that the Fed put their finger on the scale for Biden but none of that is grounded in actual fact; just the fact that the Fed is not aggressively cutting rates just because the President asks for it.