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tootie a day ago

When Bitcoin first hit public consciousness the knock from economists was that it had a built-in deflationary spiral and that seems to be true. The price keeps going up and up with a few noted bumps. Rising value is great for speculators but it's a death knell for an actual spending currency. You'd be nuts to spend it if you expect it to appreciate. That's why central banks aim for low but positive inflation.

Geee 18 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is a fallacy.

It's rational to buy stuff when it's cheap and sell stuff when it's expensive. Not the other way around. In other words, if the money gets suddenly more valuable, people would go on a shopping spree, which would cause inflation and the value would return back to normal. They wouldn't wait for it to be even more valuable. The situation would be different if there was a guarantee of deflation, but there isn't.

Economic demand is driven by human needs and wants. Lot of everyday consumption, like food, is bought when it's needed, and can't be bought 5 years later, because you'd be dead already. Other things, like a computer or a car you can buy later, but then you'll have to make a calculation whether the thing is more valuable today or after 5 years if you'll get it 30% cheaper. There's no situation where you sit on a pile of bitcoins and just die there waiting.

tootie 6 hours ago | parent [-]

You're trying to rewrite decades of economic theory in a single comment. You can just Google "deflation great depression" and "elasticity of demand". Think about the opposite side of the coin. You have car that is ok but want a better one. The better one costs $35k. In a few months, it will be $30k and a few more $25k. When will you buy it? Deflation is kryptonite to consumer spending.

hippich a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the difference here is that Bitcoin is predictable deflationary vs fiat being unpredictable. If you can know in advance the rate, it becomes sorta like an investment vehicle, where instead of dividends you get appreciation of the assets.

To look at it another way - why one would spend $100 from their brokerage account if they know a year later they can spend $110?

tootie a day ago | parent [-]

Bitcoin is not remotely predictable. The value has swung wildly over the past 5 years. Dropping more than 50% then gaining 200%. By comparison, USD has been rock solid even with the recent run of inflation. An actually circulating currency causes a panic at an 8% drop in value and yet there was zero macroeconomic impact from BTC dropping 50%. BTC is less stable than Turkish Lira.

hippich 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I am taking specifically about deflationary nature of Bitcoin issuance

majkinetor a day ago | parent | prev [-]

The same can be said for stocks, and they are considered a good investment if you are in the knows. As an example, Tesla lost a third of its value this year.

tootie a day ago | parent [-]

Stocks convey equity, pay dividends, must do quarterly disclosures, must disclose insider trading activity and, most importantly, are never used for payments. The topic is payments, not investments.

majkinetor 21 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, right, on paper. Let's pretend that insider trading activity is disclosed and that Nancy is just born talented

tootie 21 hours ago | parent [-]

Trades made by actual insiders are disclosed. That's a narrower definition than what qualifies at illegal insider trading (or an insider sharing inside information with an outsider). That's also not likely to be what is happening with members on Congress who may be trading on nonpublic information that isn't legally insider information.

DennisP a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Aside from tax implications, there's no difference between spending $1000 from your salary, and spending $1000 in Bitcoin and rebuying that amount from your salary.