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gnfargbl a day ago

Something that isn't spoken about enough is that in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized due to reductions in electricity usage over time [1]. That link says 16% over, but the peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW [2], which I make more like a 30% reduction from the all-time peak.

Because of this, it feels like we should already have enough transmission capacity in a decent part of the network to cope with a re-organisation of where the sources and sinks are placed. Yes, we might need to do some work in the last mile, especially if V2G takes off, but things aren't nearly as bad as one might naively assume.

[1] https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-sto...

[2] https://www.neso.energy/news/britains-electricity-explained-...

jandrese a day ago | parent | next [-]

It depends. In a neighboring county they have effectively saturated the grid and had to put a hold on datacenter permits. AI has been undoing a bunch of the efficiency savings we worked hard for in the past 20-30 years.

pjc50 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The trouble is the capacity is in the wrong place; the UK closed coal plants in (defunct) coalfields in the middle of the country, and built offshore wind farms which tend to be further north. There's plans for an offshore north-south connector to help with this.

gnfargbl a day ago | parent | next [-]

True, but don't forget you can put BESS on the sites of the old coal plants: https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240927-how-coal-fired...

dboreham 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That connector goes underwater right where I grew up. I haven't visited mother for a few months but afaik they haven't begun digging yet.

zokier a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In some parts of my country the grid provider has needed to restrict new industrial connections because the grid is hitting its limits.

https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20138415?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x...

gnfargbl a day ago | parent [-]

OK, but Finland has the lowest electricity prices in Europe and is pretty cold for most of the year. It makes sense that people want to put datacenters there.

oezi a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Electricity needs are expected to rise significantly as we convert heating and transportation to electric.

gnfargbl a day ago | parent [-]

Not as much as you might think: one of the links I gave suggests only an overall 10% increase if the entire country switches to EVs. I found another link suggesting a 25% average increase if we all switch to heat pumps -- still within what the grid is sized for already.

youngtaff a day ago | parent [-]

Heat Pumps will be the big driver but there’s a lot of spare electricity capacity over night in most European countries

JumpCrisscross a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized

Your sources really only apply to Britain and other deïndustrialising countries. American and European energy demand is rising due to electrification and AI.

gnfargbl a day ago | parent | next [-]

For Europe at least, measured numbers are flat or slightly falling: https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/electricity

I accept that AI is likely to take us in the wrong direction for a while. (I don't think it will actually be that long, once people realise that more training isn't getting more results.)

ericd a day ago | parent [-]

In the US, iirc replacing combustion cars and heating with EVs and heat pumps are larger contributors - the inflation reduction act and various incentives have been pretty successful, and as a consequence, electricity demand has been growing much quicker recently than in the previous couple decades.

a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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swiftcoder a day ago | parent | prev [-]

How much of Europe is still electrifying? Or I suppose you mean migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric?

JumpCrisscross a day ago | parent [-]

> migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric?

Yes.

jansan a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW

It was actually 1000 times that much.

gnfargbl a day ago | parent [-]

Correct, thankyou: stupid error on my part. 45GW.