Sounds like were getting at something in the conversation. For the professional developer generative ai is another tool, making us maybe a bit more capable than before. For the amateur it is a breakthrough enabling amateurs to tackle things that are wildly more ambitious than what they could before. But it's still amateur just-good–enough–for-personal-use software. Productising software is still 90% of the work of professional software development, and this is why we're not seeing a jump in the amount of for-sale software. What numbers should we track for the amount of amateur software? One number I have seen is that the npm downloads of React have jumped a lot in the last year. What this tells us about what additional stuff people are doing with React I don't know.

I like that take, and confirms I shouldn't yet spend my time trying to sell what I make.