The point though is AI wont make you rich. It is about value capture. They compare it to shipping containers.

I think AI value will mostly be spread. Open AI will be more like Godaddy than Apple. Trying to reduce prices and advertise (with a nice bit of dark patterns). It will make billions, but ultimately by competing its ass off rather than enjoying a moat.

The real moats might be in mineral mining, fabrication of chips etc. This may lead to strained relations between countries.

The value is going to be in deep integration with existing platforms. It doesn't matter if OpenAI had their tools out first, Only the Microsoft AI will work in Word, only the Apple AI will deeply integrate on the iPhone.

Having the cutting edge best model won't matter either since 99.9% of people aren't trying to solve new math problems, they are just generating adverts and talking to virtual girlfriends.

That's 100% not the case. OpenAI is wedged between the unstoppable juggernaut that is Google at the high end and the state sponsored Chinese labs at the low end, they're going to mostly get squeezed out of the utility inference market. They basically HAVE to pivot to consumer stuff and go head to head with Apple with AI first devices, that's the only way they're going to justify their valuation. This is actually not a crazy plan, as Apple has been resting on their laurels with their OS/software, and their AI strategy has been scattershot and bad.

Interesting thought. Once digital assets become devalued enough, things will revert and people/countries will start to keep their physical resources even tighter than before.