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thephyber 4 days ago

This conflates high education specialists with high earnings. It’s probably not completely uncorrelated, but only giving H1-Bs to the highest paying reqs which need them starves all of the other reqs of any possible candidates.

I understand that H1-Bs are currently likely to create an abusive relationship with the visa-ed employee, but just because you have identified a valid diagnosis doesn’t mean your suggested prescription would be much better.

Taek 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

That seems like a fair way for the free market to address things, no? If you need special carve outs, create a new type of Visa for those special cases.

The immigrants are all going to be paying taxes on their earnings. If you can boost H1B salaries by an average of $20k/yr by doing a price auction, that brings govt revenue and maybe even gives opportunities to balance the budget by creating more H1B slots.

thephyber 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

What do you mean “fair”? What happens in the years/decades between when this hypothetical system is enacted and when the US can train up sufficient workers to substitute the labor force we currently have with H1-B?

Your proposal will mean 99% of all of the H1-B allocation will go to hedge fund quants and 1% maybe go to an AI researcher, but all of the materials science (eg. Cutting edge battery tech), semiconductor fabrication, neuroscience, pharmaceutical research etc will have to go without the skilled workers they currently get from visas. This is a recipe for the Boeingization of the US economy.

throwawaymaths 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

exactly wrong. Americans are dissuaded from going into these highly skilled fields because anyone talented enough to do those things realizes they can make much more building SAASes or working on wall street.

the Boeingization of the economy is mbas and bean counter middle management realizing that an H1-B is much cheaper than a citizen and opting to buy that labor, even if it's worse quality. as management, you put an ass into a seat, so job accomplished, here's your accolade.

thephyber 2 days ago | parent [-]

Your comment has a thin veneer of truth, but actually has very little to do with H1-B system.

Boeing is full of bean counters now, but they are optimizing things like opening factories in poor non-unions states (the South Carolina factory has had lots of whistleblowers screaming about lack of training and pressure to build faster than is safe), convincing the FAA to let Boeing employees do regulatory review on their own company, etc. few or none of Boeing’s problems are solved by eliminating/reducing H1-Bs for that company/industry, which is why I chose them as the example.

“Americans are dissuaded…”

This has an emotional appeal to intuition, but I don’t think it’s what’s causing Americans not to compete for jobs/industries that heavily use H1-B. If it was, there would simply be a market competition and those programmer salaries would drop. Instead, I think Americans have been convinced by Theil types to avoid US universities (either for cultural reasons or ROI reasons). You seem to be making an argument that the ROI would be better if H1-Bs were scarce, but that wouldn’t change the fact that tuition in elite US institutions is expensive and seats are scarce+competitive. Without also changing either the university system to seat more students or companies to hire from different signals (instead of highly prizing the bland name of the university), American job applicants won’t be dissuaded from getting those degrees.

Arguably H1-Bs have done the most damage to US programmers, but there are several other structural problems regarding programmer hiring in the US. The big tech collusion to reduce employee poaching (not current, but recent past), application process (“resume firewall”, ghost jobs, deluge of automated applications), the interview process (we seem to have optimized for gotcha questions and LeetCoding tests, rather than real world requirements), high interest rates (higher than the recent past) have squeezed VC funding and closed the wallets of employers, and the race to replace/augment salary employees with AI agents. All of these are structural problems that arguably do more dissuading than the visa system.

Taek 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Or... those other parts of the economy increase salaries for skilled labor?

If we can only bring 85,000 people into the country on one type of visa, doesn't it make sense to prioritize those that will bring the most value (tax revenue, in this case)?

And if that's not enough people... raise the limit? And be confident that a raised limit is still keeping a high quality bar on entrants?

whatever1 4 days ago | parent [-]

Option 1: you give a visa to a quant with 2M/y today’s salary

Option 2: you give a visa to a PhD to work for 150k/year in a small biopharma startup that thinks it has the solution to cancer.

This salary stacked ranking optimizes for today’s worth of work. Not its potential.

4 days ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
throwaway2037 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

    > hedge fund quants
Are there 85,000 new hedge fund quants that need to be hired each year? I guess it is more like 1,000. The number of people employed as quants at hedge funds is incredibly small.
surfmike 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You could make multiple pools, having separate ones carved out for research and advanced technology.

A lot of H1Bs are not working on anything you described though.

WillPostForFood 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"materials science (eg. Cutting edge battery tech), semiconductor fabrication, neuroscience, pharmaceutical research "

This is a beautiful fantasy for H-1B, that is totally disconnected from reality. What is that 1% of the H-1Bs currently? It is mostly IT and software slop jobs.

Here are the top 40 employers, it isn't going to hurt research in the US to cut them to zero.

Amazon.Com Services

Cognizant Technology Solutions

Ernst & Young

Tata Consultancy Services

Google

Microsoft

Infosys

Meta Platforms

Intel

Hcl America

Amazon Web Services

IBM

Jpmorgan Chase

Walmart

Apple

Accenture

Capgemini

Ltimindtree

Deloitte Consulting

Salesforce

Qualcomm

Tesla

Amazon Development Center

Wipro

Fidelity Technology Group

Tech Mahindra

Compunnel Software Group

Deloitte Touche

Mphasis

Nvidia

Adobe

Bytedance

Goldman, Sachs

Cisco

Linkedin

Pricewaterhousecoopers Advisory Services

Paypal

Ebay

Servicenow

Visa USA

For non-slop jobs, give them a green card and fast track to citizenship. For an IT consultant, no thanks.

source: https://www.myvisajobs.com/reports/h1b/

osnium123 4 days ago | parent [-]

Intel H1Bs are engaged in semiconductor research.

aydyn 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Well it's Intel... not really selling your case here.

notmyjob 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Doubtful.

BeFlatXIII 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Your proposal will mean 99% of all of the H1-B allocation will go to hedge fund quants and 1% maybe go to an AI researcher, but all of the materials science (eg. Cutting edge battery tech), semiconductor fabrication, neuroscience, pharmaceutical research etc will have to go without the skilled workers they currently get from visas. This is a recipe for the Boeingization of the US economy.

If they're that necessary, let companies hire them on green card visas.

AbrahamParangi 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

This is just an argument against allowing the market to set wages, which you could make if you wanted to but it is not a strong one.

m-schuetz 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't think it's that fair. IT jobs are exceptionally well paid and this system may starve other domains of talent, domains that don't have that kind of fuck-it money that IT has.

But I agree rhat H1B should not be about hiring cheap labour. I'd prefer a system where H1B salaries must be competitive with the top of the field. There are incredibly smart talents around the world, and if you hire someone from outside then it should be because they are the best of the best, so they should get paid accordingly.

_heimdall 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Can we really consider it the free market when there are already so many regulations in place?

collingreen 4 days ago | parent [-]

I don't think the "free" in free market is supposed to mean no rules. I think the "free" is supposed to mean both sides of the transactions get to choose to participate or not which means they are pressured to "meet in the middle" and optimize for mutually beneficial deals. The idea is that this is going to provide better outcomes than trying to plan out what everyone makes and buys from the top.

Overregulation can reduce the effective freedom in a market (usually by increasing costs or reducing choice) but good regulation is there to shepherd this equilibrium of a fair deal between buyers and sellers by doing things like getting externalities priced in (if youre buying x you should pay the cost of x, not your neighbor); preventing monopolies, cartels, other price fixing / choice reducing things that makes one side of the market not have to meet in the middle; and adding standards or visibility so market participants can be more efficient and safe when choosing (instead of having to do things like research all of a company's supply chain and employees to decide if it's safe to eat there or to fly in their planes).

Some things get imposed onto the market intentionally like protection for unions (in theory an alternative/shortcut to grouping up into inefficient passthrough companies), tarrifs to give someone an advantage in what they can offer, subsidies to intentionally prevent the market from contracting to the current size of demand (like if the country wants to maintain a certain ability to produce food or doctors or certain goods), and government programs to effectively set a floor on the price of something (like interest rates so lending/borrowing will never be worse than a certain mark).

All these things are useful tools in a market of self motivated actors trying to maximize their own gain in the short term but, like all tools, they get abused and out maneuvered often so it's a constant game of cat and mouse to keep the system running.

Pros and cons all over the place; most things have a huge downside of vulnerability to truly bad actors having too much control (which is where the idea of democracy comes in but I have to stop myself I already word dumped).

tl;dr yes absolutely call it a free market until people are forced to participate too much

_heimdall 4 days ago | parent [-]

I totally agree that there are two extremes to the idea and neither are realistic. A market doesn't have to be completely free of regulation to be considered free.

There's a balance though, and as heavily regulated as immigration is I just don't see how it could fall into the range of being a roughly free market. Work-based immigration into the US specifically is heavily regulated and there are a lot of blocks in the way making it infeasible or impossible for one to take part in it.

I mean that on both sides too, both employers and potential employees are heavily burdened by the process and often they just can't take part in the process for any number of regulatory reasons.

cm2187 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes and no. That's going to benefit wall street, at the expense of R&D labs where PhD researchers are paid in whip lashes.

4 days ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
nitwit005 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you have a high skill role and aren't willing to pay for those skills, it's natural you have a "shortage of workers". But, the problem is just the pay.

The normal fix for companies that can't afford to hire, is to let them go broke.

otterley 3 days ago | parent [-]

What if there are 100 people for a job and there are only 50 qualified workers in the country? (Assume the constraints in this hypothetical are true.) There is no amount of money the employers can pay to reach equilibrium.

tziki 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Exactly this. Top 1% of artists earn about as much as the average software engineer. Ranking people purely based on salary is turning h1b into a visa for people in specific professions.

handoflixue 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Genuinely curious: why do we need H1B visas for artists? My understanding is that H1B visas are meant to cover highly-skilled work that can't be done by locals, and "art" doesn't seem like a field with a shortage of local candidates?

colmmacc 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Interestingly, there's a whole category of H1B visas just for fashion models. H-1B3, which is for models with "distinguished merit and ability".

A famous supermodel can most likely get an O1 visa, for people of extraordinary ability. But agency models more commonly work on H1-B. Melania Trump is a famous example. These visas are tied to an employer and there's less portability. It's a two tier system.

Personally I think that there is some harm here. Agencies bring in young women from relatively poor countries and they are put in conditions where abuse, even sexual assault, is common and can face pressures to tolerate conditions and shoots that a local person with a safety network would not.

_rm 4 days ago | parent [-]

That visa is literally the "hot chicks are OK" visa. Melania Trump is a famous example.

AuthError 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

this also holds true for chemical, biomedical researchers, mechanical engineers working in deep tech, software engineering is such an anomaly that it's hard to do income based lottery without overindexing on swe market

austhrow743 4 days ago | parent [-]

What does overindexing on the swe market mean?

If these other professions don’t pay as much as swe, then doesn’t that indicate that domestic supply is meeting those industries needs better than it is swe?

dotnet00 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Not at all. Salaries aren't just a function of talent availability, they're also a function of capital availability.

AuthError 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

or it doesn't have software like margins so you can't pay insane salaries and you still need great talent that's not available in us (those salaries might be higher than normal but it won't match swe salaries)

_rm 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

You're not genuinely curious because it's obviously stupid that we'd need H1B visas for artists.

If their art's got enough value to be valuable in the real sense, they're well above all this. Otherwise they're nothing.

fakedang 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Top 1% of artists have the O1 route, not the H1B route.

Tying H1B to salary is imo a reasonable solution for most companies. Thing is, in that case, most companies would simply resort to bringing in more L1 employees.

scheme271 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

L1 employees require that the company employ the person for a year at an international branch so this is only available to multi-national companies.

fakedang 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, and the usual suspects already abuse it to move jobs abroad. If you had observed, it's often multinationals, usually Indian consultancies or companies with Indian Capability Centers, which abuse the H1B. They'll just be forced to switch to the L1.

The key difference here is that the L1 is a non-immigrant visa with a period of 7 years. The H1B isn't.

anticensor 3 days ago | parent [-]

Why not filter it by ISIC&ISCO codes (if sector not in whitelisted ISIC code or job not in whitelisted ISCO code, automatic reject of company's immigrant worker request with return code "domestic talent exists")?

_rm 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Guess the cost of becoming a "multinational company" with a presence in a given country if they want to.

4 days ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
malfist 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Does the US have such a shortage of artistic talent we have to hire abroad for it?

thephyber 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Why get hung out on the example profession and not the fact that some jobs pay drastically disproportionate rates?

Linus developed Linux, but we wouldn’t be able to hire the next version of him because hedge funds would dominate the high salary reqs in this hypothetical system.

sarchertech 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

There’s an O1 visa for exceptional talent.

qwezxcrty 4 days ago | parent [-]

In that case some technical aspects needs rework... Currently O1 visa being a nonimmigrant visa have no path to PR/citizenship (unlike H1Bs) and need annual renewal. This make it unattractive to "who possess extraordinary ability".

sarchertech 4 days ago | parent [-]

You can apply for an EB-1A greencard or a national interest waiver green card while on an O1 visa.

You can also get an employer sponsored green card similarly to what you’d do if you were on an H-1B.

qwezxcrty 3 days ago | parent [-]

Yes, but even for people eligible for EB1A (it usually has a higher bar in practice, EB2/NIW is easier but way worse backlog), filing a (or according to some lesser stringent interpretation, having an approved) I-140, will make you have immigration intent and thus illegible for extension of any nonimmigration visa.

So you apply for green card and if you don't immediately get it (particularly because of the backlog for some countries), you have to leave the US.

(I'm not an immigration lawyer and these are only my personal interpretation).

sarchertech 2 days ago | parent [-]

That’s not the case. o1 is not officially classed as dual intent but it mostly functions that way.

“Labor Certification Exception:

Under the doctrine of dual intent, the fact that a U.S. employer has filed a labor certification, or an individual has filed a permanent residence petition on behalf of the non-immigrant, shall not be a basis for denying the O-1 petition, a request for extension of stay, admission to the US, or change of status for that O-1 non-immigrant.”

https://global.upenn.edu/isss/o1/

AdrianB1 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

If you cannot pay for it, it means it is not important enough. Maybe that is the problem, you want exceptional talent for pennies.

_rm 4 days ago | parent [-]

That sounds true enough for coastals to downvote you for.

AdrianB1 4 days ago | parent [-]

It is a low price for free speech.

fooker 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Short answer - yes.

There's no long answer.

KPGv2 4 days ago | parent [-]

Where are the H1-Bs working in the arts at the moment?

_rm 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

AI literally produces more mesmerising art, for pennies, than an artist ever could, because their whole shtick was "out-there visual concepts", which was a wide open space of anything that's "not normal", which now and AI can pump out copiously.

Artistic talent is not important.

collingreen 4 days ago | parent [-]

Lol. This one isn't landing as well for me as your other troll comments.

jdietrich 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The O-1 visa exists.

https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary...

breadwinner 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

How about ranking on salary but by profession, so there should be a separate rank for software engineers vs. biomedical researchers.

_rm 4 days ago | parent [-]

I now write code related to biomedical research. Checkmate

KPGv2 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> but only giving H1-Bs to the highest paying reqs which need them starves all of the other reqs of any possible candidates.

If this is the effect, is there a reason these starved orgs couldn't just hire Americans? If not, I think implicit in your argument is that H1-Bs exist to provide cheap labor to firms at the expense of American lives.

bsder 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> but only giving H1-Bs to the highest paying reqs which need them starves all of the other reqs of any possible candidates.

Then they need to pay better?

There are not 85,000 quant PhDs jobs paying a megabuck+ in spite of what many vocal people claim (and if they really wanted someone at those prices--they're more likely to just open a satellite site wherever the candidate already is and avoid the whole immigration issue). Any decent engineering salary would almost certainly qualify.

And if you can't qualify for an H1-B because the engineering salary isn't high enough, then I don't have much sympathy.

1024core 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> starves all of the other reqs of any possible candidates.

Nobody has a _right_ to cheap labor! Not attracting enough talent? Offer more!