Chances diminish as events get closer. Do you think the holocaust was unavoidable the day Hitler was born? 100 years beforehand?

I'm objecting to the statement that the civil was was inevitable. Full stop. That nothing could be done differently, by anyone, at any time, to avoid it.

I agree that any future expected event is uncertain. For example, I think there’s a small chance a black hole traveling at 0.1c smashes our solar system overnight and the sun never rises again.

To answer the question, I think the civil war was exactly as avoidable as you think world war 2 was. It’s more a question of semantics at this point, given they are unchangable past events.