The devil is in the details. The easy part is now done, and further significant increases in solar/wind in Germany are not going to happen.

Renewables now dominate generation during the optimal periods, but there's nothing on the horizon for other times.

Your graph also ignores energy used for heating and for industrial processes. Their electrification is now stalled by high energy prices.

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_aavaa_ 3 days ago | parent [-]

> not going to happen … nothing on the horizon for other times

Batteries and storage.

> heating and for industrial

That’s moving to goal posts. The discussion is about electricity.

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cyberax 3 days ago | parent [-]

> Batteries and storage.

Nearly useless for Germany. Some intraday storage will be helpful, but it will not strongly affect the wintertime fossil fuel consumption and the overall CO2 emissions.

> That’s moving to goal posts. The discussion is about electricity.

No. It's not moving goalposts. Switching from gas to electric heat pumps for heating is absolutely relevant here. It's now inhibited by the high _electricity_ prices ( https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germanys-transition-cle... ). Ditto for the ICE to EV transition.

The German government is now directly planning to pay around $20B in direct subsidies ( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-pushes-17-billi... ) to build _gas_ power plants to alleviate some of that. I expect the final bill will be around $50B just for the new natural gas generation.

Germany is also quietly reassuring investors that it's safe to build natural gas by extending the subsidies: https://www.energyconnects.com/news/renewables/2025/january/...

As usual, actions speak louder than words.

If you're willing, we can place long-term bets on that. I'd be delighted to lose, but I don't expect it.

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_aavaa_ 3 days ago | parent [-]

> absolutely relevant

It is not. We’re discussing what coal is being replaced with for electricity generation. But let’s talk about it.

> high electricity prices

Let’s ask the obvious question: are high prices caused by wind/solar? No, they’re caused by the extremely volatile prices of fossil fuels: “high fossil fuel prices were the main reason for upward pressure on global electricity prices, accounting for 90% of the rise in the average costs of electricity generation worldwide (natural gas alone for more than 50%).” [0]

So building out more gas plants won’t eliviate prices when the gas is responsible for them in the first place.

> heat pump sales

From your own link: the lengthy and public political debate about the legal framework and subsidies for heating buildings has caused people to lose confidence”

None of that has to do with electricity.

[0]: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-global-energy-crisis-pu...

	▲	cyberax 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		> It is not. We’re discussing what coal is being replaced with for electricity generation. But let’s talk about it. Let's. DW has a nice overview article: https://www.dw.com/en/how-germany-seeks-to-cut-electricity-c... A third of the total cost is grid charges, and another third is taxes. Both go towards subsidizing the renewables. BTW, the US average for all consumers is 14 cents: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... > So building out more gas plants won’t eliviate prices when the gas is responsible for them in the first place. So Germany is _deepening_ its dependency on natural gas prices by building more plants because it's... more volatile? Just imagine if there was some other reliable form of energy that doesn't require fossil fuels. > None of that has to do with electricity. It has everything to do with electricity. The government understands that the grid can't handle additional load from heating, so the subsidies are not pursued vigorously. Again, let me repeat, actions speak louder than words. Like this one: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-coalition-agrees... Or just from today: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/eu-countries-dela...