I agree with you on both counts, but I'm not sure I would count on any president post-GWB to actually defend Taiwan. Nobody seems to have put much behind the Minsk Agreement. Even if they did, I'm not sure how long that would last if nobody else supported them. Can you imagine any of the (mostly european) countries which cry so loudly about Ukraine (while unwilling to commit forces), actually sending meaningful support to Taiwan?

That's hardly relevant. The USA was never really a direct party to the Minsk Agreements. The European countries have mostly disbanded their navies so they lack the capability to defend Taiwan even if they wanted to. Any meaningful assistance would have to come from other regional allies such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.