I do think that AI will work well compared to the low end of offshoring, where to get good results you need people who could do the work themselves tightly involved. AI will give you slop code faster and cheaper, and that is sometimes enough.

The question is how it compares to the medium level of offshoring. Near term I think that at comparable cost ($100s of dollars per week), it'll give faster results at an acceptable tradeoff in quality for most uses. I don't think most companies want to spend thousands of dollars a month on developer tools per developer though... even though they often do.

It's just a different workflow IMO. AI is effectively real-time, whereas offshoring, no matter the quality, is something you have to do in batches.