The world is indeed not static. That it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.

Predictions about self driving were off, but far from "comically wrong". Waymo's operations are proof of that.

And to conclude things based on the state of the replacement of programmers after only 2-3 years of ChatGPT being a thing is folly.

The reality is that AI has far fewer limitations and legacy cruft than humans to deal with. Don't get me wrong, I like humans, but our performance is very close to the peak of what it could ever be. That of AI not so much. Remember that AI has been evolving for less than 100 years and it is already where it is today. That took us/biology orders of magnitude more time.

The only real question is how fast it will replace (which) human labor.