Has something changed in the Apple ecosystem to put item one anywhere near the table?

Let's be very clear here: all Google has announced so far is that installing apps from anonymous builds is going to be taken away and only if you want your phone to be considered "certified". Let's not get drawn too far into hysteria.

In some regions of the world a phone that is not considered "certified" by Google is only useful as a paperweight. For example, I wouldn't be able to interact with government services or use any banking with such a phone. (Notice the any and with — no, I can't switch to another bank except by emigrating somewhere, and banks are only available as mobile applications. No web.)

So unless you're willing (and can afford!) to buy and carry multiple phones, the new severely downgraded Android is about as open as iPhone, but with zero expectation of it respecting your privacy.