State + local tax burden in NM is 10.2%[1]. Revenue neutral would mean those taking the child care would instead take a job with average salary $120,000. But as another comment points out this policy attracts new jobs to the state, which complicates the math

[1]https://taxfoundation.org/location/new-mexico/

Income tax is not the only revenue that the state and local governments capture when production increases.