It's worth observing that when remoters talk about "productivity", they talk about their personal ability of chugging through tickets and not overall team productivity which includes a lot of teaching, mentoring, conversations and getting on the same page.

So yeah, what's happening is that senior folks "productivity" as they perceive it has risen while the output of whole teams over time suffered.

Goodheart's Law strikes again. If churning through 10 more tickets rather than brainstorming with a team on a feature gets them promoted, then you're going to get a "team" of loners and much less productivity for the real features.

I do think there is a balance here. In my experience, brainstorming or deep design discussions are horrible over Zoom. Likewise, new grads really do suffer when they start their careers with no direct mentor to talk to at a moments notice.

I think even just the first year or 2 for juniors should be at least 3 days in-office a week. Likewise, you should be able to go in office a few times a month just to properly collaborate and plan. It doesn't need to be much in tech, because a lot of time is indeed just heads-down development instead of designing.