Unemployment was continuously higher than the current level from approximately early 1970 to mid 1999: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1M4lw (click "Max")

Markets currently don't expect significantly higher inflation in the long term, as the "10 year breakeven inflation rate" ("The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.") is fairly stable: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE By my understanding, this is supposed to trend towards 2.0% when everything is hunky-dory; things are not perfect, but they look fine to me in historical perspective. Similarly for e.g. this 5-year forward chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

> Raising rates to put stress on businesses and consumers is the only method known to work for ending self-reinforcing high inflation

Yes, and that's how we made sure that the inflation peak in 2022 didn't become self-reinforcing. And as far as anyone seems to be able to tell, it worked.

> It's what Paul Volcker did at the Federal Reserve in response to the stagflation that started in the early 1970's in the US and other countries, after OPEC raised oil prices. Volcker raised the federal funds rate in fits and starts to a high of 20% in 1981:

Right. Current circumstances are very different. Posting this much about what you "hope doesn't happen" comes across as fear-mongering, given the lack of reason to expect it to happen. The tariff discourse allows people to throw around large, scary-sounding percentages, but in practice the corresponding price increases are on average much smaller. And the employment situation in the US is still very good in historical terms. (There are valid concerns about the methodology behind the headline unemployment rate, but it's still the same methodology.)

> And the employment situation in the US is still very good in historical terms. (There are valid concerns about the methodology behind the headline unemployment rate, but it's still the same methodology.)

I should add: historically, increases in the unemployment rate have a tendency to accelerate and then produce a spike, which is then brought under control by some other mechanism, and tends to correspond with a recession. But this is just the normal boom-bust cycle, and seems rather unavoidable. The rate can't keep going down forever, and having it level out doesn't seem feasible, either. The magnitude of such a spike doesn't necessarily indicate the severity of economic downturn, either.

I hope you're right.

To the extent I come across as doubtful and concerned, it is only due to recent firsthand experiences buying food, clothes, and electronics. My perception is that prices are still rising in many product categories. Anecdotal evidence is not data, so I can't and won't make a prediction, but I think it's fair for me to express doubt and concern.

All I know for certain is that we'll find out as more data becomes available.