You read a lot of books about economics, history, and political science and suddenly everything starts to look like it's complicated. The recent trend of commentators shouting "it's actually not complicated" is troubling. I try to present commentary with some nuance and humility. I have a perspective, but I endeavor to leave room for the possibility that I don't have a full understanding or that my model of the world doesn't fit every set of circumstances.

The key I realized is that there is always complexity, but the "simple" understanding is still "mostly" right.

No complexity can make a $1 billion expense able to be paid with $1m of revenue.