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cs702 3 days ago

All I can suggest is to read Buffett's classic article from 1977:

https://fortune.com/article/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-t...

CamperBob2 3 days ago | parent [-]

He goes completely off the rails in the very first sentence: It is no longer a secret that stocks, like bonds, do poorly in an inflationary environment.

Does it get better?

staticman2 3 days ago | parent [-]

Why do you think that sentence is wrong?

Hint: What time period do you think he's talking about?

CamperBob2 3 days ago | parent [-]

He's talking about a time period when the stock market was in the doldrums and inflation was high. Right now inflation is considered high (even though it isn't really, historically) and the stock market is berserk.

And why wouldn't the stock market be considered a valid investment in the presence of inflation? Where else are you supposed to park your cash if you want to outperform TIPS? Remember that in the 1970s there basically was no retail stock market compared to what we have now, where everyone and their dog has a 401(k) and trading is basically free.

Even if valid, his point doesn't seem relevant. It is going to be hard to apply any lessons from the 1970s to what we're facing now, when incompetent and erratic policymakers are driving the US economic picture rather than external influences like OPEC and Viet Nam. (And if we thought OPEC was a malevolent cartel, just wait'll the rest of the world starts forging its own trade agreements without inviting us to participate.)

staticman2 3 days ago | parent [-]

You acknowledge inflation isn't high by historical standards yet went on to argue he's wrong because stocks went up when inflation wasn't high by historical standards?

The last time we had sudden unexpected high inflation was 2022 and stocks crashed did they not?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

I have no opinion on whether the article is relevant I was only responding to the sentence you quoted which didn't seem obviously incorrect.

CamperBob2 3 days ago | parent [-]

Hmm. What else was going on around that time that might confound any conclusions?

Also, a 'crash' that recovers in 90 days isn't much of a 'crash', but the fact that people consider it a 'crash' is admittedly kind of scary.

staticman2 3 days ago | parent [-]

Not sure where you got 90 days from. Turns out there's a Wikipedia article:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_stock_market_decline

Perhaps you would have preferred if I said "bear market" rather than crash.

At any rate the first sentence of that Buffet article you hated didn't deserve your ire.

CamperBob2 3 days ago | parent [-]

Bear market, temporary downturn, whatever. It was not a "crash" by any sane definition of the word, and it had little or nothing to do with inflation. Otherwise we'd see the same correlation at other times when inflation has spiked.

3 days ago | parent [-]
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