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yepitwas 3 days ago

A lot of current conservative grousing about the deficit is priming the electorate for destroying social security. That's why they always highlight it as the main cause of the deficit, even though it has a totally separate income stream from the rest of the budget.

Republicans have done the exact opposite of balancing the budget at least since Reagan (inclusive) non-stop, zero R presidents have even done as well as democrats at pursuing a balanced budget since then, so they're not serious about it, including and perhaps especially Trump—but they really, really want to get their hands on social security, it's so much money out of the hands of rich people that they just can't stand it.

throw912 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Expect this to get much worse soon. Even left-leaning youth will probably start to agree with the idea of destroying it out of spite, and even if they know it won't actually help them. At some point we'll have to admit, it's not easy to explain why youth need to subsidize things for an older generation that enjoys housing, healthcare, and stocks when they themselves have not had the disposable income for any of that. Scott Galloway has a ted-talk where he calls it generational theft: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEJ4hkpQW8E

bluGill 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

I've heard this type of thing all my life. The generation that screwed the youth has changed, but there was always such talk.

Belopolye 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

The boomers ate the seed corn.

chrisco255 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

No party's platform is based on ending or destroying social security, especially not the GOP who gets a broad base of support from retirees. That being said, I've never had much faith in it being around for myself, though I'm 30 years from eligibility). It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable in spite of overwhelming boomer population to support.

The federal tax revenue as percentage of GDP is remarkably stable regardless of widely varying income tax rates over the decades (ranging 15-20% since the 1940s): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ockN. This holds up no matter which regime (D or R) is dominant, because the economy reorganizes itself around incentives or disincentives created by various tax policies.

triceratops 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable

Social Security is funded entirely by payroll tax deductions and invested only in treasury bonds. Bonds which have had very low yields in this century. Guess what you collect less of as automation and AI ramp up? Payroll taxes.

EDIT: I saw your comment here. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45191291 Sounds like we agree.

yepitwas 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Republicans, including some of the current crop, have been making noise about putting the money in the stock market, one way or another, for a long time, and if anyone’s gonna actually do it it’s these guys.

mek6800d2 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

A reminder to everyone: Social Security is NOT a retirement plan, it is an insurance plan. When your 401(k) is cratered by the stock market or your pension goes the way of Enron, SS is supposed to be there to hopefully keep you from being dumped in the gutter. Tying SS to the stock market would not be a smart move.

loeg 2 days ago | parent [-]

You're drawing a semantic distinction that doesn't really exist. Insurance for retirement, retirement funding -- it's all the same thing.

A 100% equities (or 100% Enron) portfolio is not the only or best option available to the SSA. And the SS portfolio can't be panic-sold by the individual retiree in a market downswing. Using equities to achieve some additional upside for SS in one way or another is plausibly a reasonable idea.

chrisco255 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Having a sovereign wealth fund isn't a terrible idea. This is what Norway runs on:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_N...

triceratops 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Not the worst idea in the world. It's better if returns from capital fund retirements rather than taxes on labor.