Your point is completely valid. Tangent: in your example, what calculation led to "63%"?

1-(.9999)^10000

I trust the user did this calculation. I didn't.

	▲	tgv 5 days ago \| parent [-]
		That's indeed the formula. The .9999 is (1 - 1/10000), 1/10000 being the likelihood. It would perhaps have been clearer if I had chosen two different numbers...