Experts are often worse than laymen in predicting macro developments because they are narrowed by their focus and biased towards it. Tetlock's Superforecasting is a great book on this.

Some condensed source I found on the topic:

https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/The-more-famous-an-expert-...

I would like to confirm that I've been highly influenced by Tetlock, and I appreciate his work. It was an integral part of a strategy in a business group I was running.

With that stated, if you can see beyond his vitriol, Nassim Taleb has some valid comments toward Tetlock's methodologies. I love Taleb, but hate his tendency to try and shock people. However, he does raise valid concerns about fat tails.