| ▲ | torginus 3 days ago |
| Renewables can't meet the base energy needs. You can't only run your datacenters and factories when the wind blows or the sun shines.
They also have low power density, making them problematic at grid scale. SMRs fix all the issues of modern nuclear reactors. SMR's are not 'small' in the absolute sense, they're on the scale of traditional power plants, not existing nuclear reactors. They have a ton of advantages: - They are inherently safe, no need to worry about meltdowns. - They produce power comparable to existing power plants. Nuclear plants have huge issues with producing tons of power in a centralized manner, meaning the energy infrastructure needs to be designed around them, and probably you need a centralized infrastrucure for power distribution, which might not jive well with local politics. They also need huge concentrated cooling capacity, which might have negative ecological effects, and present a huge risk should they need to be shut down. The recent issues in France with global warming, where the rivers water level got lower and the water warmer, cutting down on cooling margins dramatically leading to shutdowns comes to mind. - In contrast SMRs can be slotted into current energy infrastructure. Modern reactor designs can be throttled to match grid needs. - SMRs are standardized, smaller and don't need to be built on site and can be built relatively quicker and cheaper. This is huge. If a traditional plant costs $20B and takes 20 years to build, the interest on the loans could mean it's never going to be financially viable. If you cound do something that makes quarter the power, but costs $5B and 5 years to build, it's an entirely different value proposition. China is already building these, and they are the main country of origin for solar panels and equipment. Renewables make a ton of sense, but can't solve every issue. |
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| ▲ | bluGill 3 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| > You can't only run your datacenters and factories when the wind blows or the sun shines. This has been false in the real world. Factories that use a lot of energy do work with the power company and shutdown all the time based on demand. Large steel mills have their own power plant onsite, but smaller ones just buy grid energy and they want the cheapest. They arrange their factory maintenance schedules with the power company so that the power plants are maintained as the same time they are shutdown. They shutdown every December so the power company can sell the power they were using to run Christmas lights. They often run overnight shifts only because that is when power is cheapest. Even the large factories with their own power generation have shutdown for a couple weeks to sell power to the grid (this is very rare, but it has happened). Wind and solar is a little more difficult because it isn't as predictable, but that is different from unpredictable. The power companies already are running models to predict the wind and solar cycles because it is important for many things they do. You can bet those smaller factories are already working with the power company to schedule shutdowns when power is predicted to be expensive - factories have to do regular maintenance anyway so it is just a matter of being ready (spare parts) when asked, and wind/solar is predictable enough for this. |
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| ▲ | jillesvangurp 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Renewables can't meet the base energy needs. That assertion is not something everyone agrees with. And baseload is hardly ever qualified with even a ballpark estimate in GW or GWH of capacity needed. So, it's a fairly hollow and meaningless term. And the reality is that for every 100GW added to grids world wide, about 80% or more is renewable. Nuclear is only small portion of the remaining capacity. And SMRs are a rounding error on that. Most of the rest is gas based generation. Besides, data centers are a great example of something that can easily scale up and down its energy consumption based on price signals, user demand, etc. So, it's actually ideal to pair with fluctuating supply and demand from renewables. Using e.g. spot instances makes it easy for data centers to scale down their demand if energy is scarce and expensive. Other things they could do is throttle CPUs/GPUs based on energy pricing or encourage people to time shift non critical jobs to when energy is plentiful. SMRs won't have fixed anything until there are lots of them. Whether you believe this will happen or not, it won't be happening very soon. Realistically, SMRs will remain a niche solution for decades to come; even if they do work at reasonable cost levels. |
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| ▲ | torginus 3 days ago | parent [-] | | > And baseload is hardly ever qualified with even a ballpark estimate in GW or GWH of capacity needed. If we close all the steel mills and ship off manufacturing to China, then yes, we won't have baseload, and we can be happy that we saved the planet using solar! > Renewables can't meet the base energy needs.
That assertion is not something everyone agrees with. And baseload is hardly ever qualified with even a ballpark estimate in GW or GWH of capacity needed. So, it's a fairly hollow and meaningless term. > And the reality is that for every 100GW added to grids world wide, about 80% or more is renewable. Do you have solar at home? Because I do, I have 10kW of panels on my roof. I just checked my stats and in December I approximately made about 15% o peak capacity. And even that isn't the whole picture, as there were chunks days where I basically made nothing and even the batteries couldn't pull me through it. And I have no idea how you're calculating this 100GW. If you count adding 2000 500W panels as adding 1MW, then even on the Caribbean your calculation is going to be incredibly generous. > Nuclear is only small portion of the remaining capacity As for nuclear, it was made way too expensive because the economy and money became fake, divorced from real value, and pearl-clutchers and concern trolls made it too expensive. But even in the 70s-80s when things were actually built in Europe, it was clear that Gen IV (of which SMRs are an example) was the future of nuclear, its just nobody bothered to build it because it was easier to ship off manufacturing into the 3rd world. >Besides, data centers are a great example of something that can easily scale up and down its energy consumption. Yeah when you buy millions of dollars of HW, the 'we'll need to run it at 15% capacity in December and during night, not at all' sounds like a sound return on investment. Way to cheerlead to get another industry shipped off from the continent. > SMRs won't have fixed anything until there are lots of them. SMRs are not small, they are scalable, and can be made in similar capacity to existing coal and gas plants. Once they reach EOL, they'd be a perfect slot-in zero emissions replacement. But since nuclear is the devil's work, I guess we'll get to keep burning gas for another half a century. | | |
| ▲ | cycomanic 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | That fact that people can't even agree on what SMRs even are tells you everything. You advocate that they are essentially the same thing as a regular power plant, others say they are small boxes that can be put at any neighborhood corner. But everything because they are going to scale magically. Nobody ever explained how that scalability is supposed to happen. A large portion of any nuclear reactor is still a steam turbine, we have built lots of these without seeing prices fall exponentially (like solar) why should adding a couple (really a miniscule) number of SMRs suddenly fundamentally change the way their price scaling? | | |
| ▲ | torginus 3 days ago | parent [-] | | I might be wrong but I don't think anyone's seriously proposing on building these truly tiny reactors - I think every one of these is being built is powerplant sized. SMRs identifying trait is that these reactors are prefabricated and transported onsite and do not have to be built in pace. |
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| ▲ | lukeschlather 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > If we close all the steel mills and ship off manufacturing to China, then yes, we won't have baseload, and we can be happy that we saved the planet using solar! 86% of generation added in China in 2024 is renewable. | | |
| ▲ | torginus 3 days ago | parent [-] | | If you want reliable all-year round-the-clock solar, you have to over build by 20x, not to mention the batteries. (Wind has different but analogous issues) That's not to hate on solar - I think it's great, and I personally have solar at home, but its not a substitute for everything |
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| ▲ | seec 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm glad I'm not alone thinking this. Much of the renewable price/cost calculation is plain wrong because we have offloaded the cost to other countries (who gladly still use fossil fuels). On top of that there is the problem of maintaining a real economy inside the country, to benefit people actually living in said country. I believe most of HN don't care because they get paid to make stuff that is sold globally and they profit from that. They can't understand that not everybody can do that and you need to create value inside of the country so that they can share/benefit from that value creation. I also have access to solar generation statistics in the middle of France and they make no sense without the generous subsidies and electricity generation purchase from the provider. But plenty are profiting from that so of couse they are happy about it. |
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| ▲ | energy123 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > You can't only run your datacenters and factories when the wind blows or the sun shines. You're going to need more work than a bare assertion to demonstrate this, given that storage exists, and given that gas peaking exists, and given that interconnects exist. Consider these: - https://www.offgridai.us/ - https://sci-hub.se/10.1039/c7ee03029k |
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| ▲ | zozbot234 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Throttling a reactor makes no sense when the fuel is dirt cheap, which it is for nuclear. It's not clear given the choice of providing the same amount of power with thousands of SMR's worth a few MW's each or a handful of traditional nuclear plants, that SMR's are inherently the better choice. SMR's make obvious sense as a distributed source in cases where power transmission is itself costly and the density of power use is low, but not obviously otherwise. |
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| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 3 days ago | parent [-] | | The wear and tear and fuel costs are non-zero. Which is why old paid off nuclear reactors are today are being forced off the grids when renewables bring sustained low prices. |
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| ▲ | Kon5ole 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >- They are inherently safe, no need to worry about meltdowns. I don't worry about designed meltdowns, I worry about someone bunker-busting it, crashing a plane into it, detonating a convoy of trucks filled with fertilizer inside it, someone deciding that an old mine close the the ground water is "good enough" to store the waste from it, that war, forest fires, floods or famine will leave the sites unmanned until the storage pools dry out and the waste starts burning, or any number of similar scenarios which become so much more likely the more of these things we have. But mostly I worry that they are more expensive than anything else even in a best-case scenario. Why should we invest in more expensive electricity, that also carries a significant risk for immense disasters, when we have solved cheap solar, cheap batteries and synthesized fuels? The path forward seems obvious, even though it's less traveled. |
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| ▲ | ziotom78 a day ago | parent [-] | | They are so safe that nobody has ever attempted a terrorist attack against them since the first fission reactor (1941). Terrorists have targeted the Twin towers, the Pentagon, the White House, the Bataclan, Nice, but no fission reactors nor waste deposits. (If terrorists are reading this, I suggest them to plan an attack to the Baogang Lake [1], which is considerably less guarded and potentially more effective in terms of people killed.) And if reactors are really so expensive (5 G€/reactor, while Italy spends 10 G€ per year in subsidies for renewables), why are Italians like me paying twice as much for electricity as the French, even though 70% of their energy comes from uranium and 0% of ours? [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baogang_Tailings_Dam | | |
| ▲ | Kon5ole a day ago | parent [-] | | >They are so safe that nobody has ever attempted a terrorist attack against them since the first fission reactor (1941) Attempts are made regularly, and nuclear plants all over the world implemented additional security measures after 9/11. "A foiled Chechen rebel assault on the Russian city of Nalchik in October 2005 would have involved an attempt to hijack and fly one of five aircraft into a nuclear power station. Papers released in the UK in February 2005 under the Freedom of Information Act (2000) revealed there were more than 40 cases of potential security breaches at UK civil nuclear sites from 2004 to 2005." https://www.rusi.org/publication/countering-threats-nuclear-... >why are Italians like me paying twice as much for electricity as the French, even though 70% of their energy comes from uranium and 0% of ours It's complex but a simplified answer is that Italy pays what it actually costs, while the French leaves a lot of the cost to their children. The children (of the people who built the french nuclear plants) recently had to pay over 50 bn euros to cover the debts of EDF, and will likely have to pay another ?? bn to cover lack of maintenance on the aging reactors. (Google it). For 50+ years, france sold nuclear electricity at a loss, mostly unknowingly. Once they have paid the sins of the parents, the remaining costs to maintain the plants for another 20+ years again will likely be postponed to the next generation, since covering the cost today would make the electricity too expensive to sell. Note that France is running their economy at a much larger deficit than Italy for the past few years. Nuclear power that is not paid by electricity consumers now, but instead by the government, is of course not the entire explanation but it's part of it. |
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| ▲ | riffraff 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| but SMRs have the problem of not actually being proven. China has a few under construction, but having reactors built is not proof of them being viable, e.g. remember the superphénix. |