My tax accountant said every one of his clients was freaking out about it. So, I have to disagree.

If there was any lobbying incentive, it would be anticompetitive suppression of smaller companies that can't afford the tax increase.

This change has zero effect on your EBITA.

How would that make EBITA look better? (Even if you meant EBITDA, same question)

I doubt wealthy people are afraid to shop at London galleries or auctions. There are street robberies but they target watches and phones, not so much antiques.

Pretty much every country is in conflict at their border. However, resolutions can happen peacefully. Nations are essentially pillaging structures and thus want to always expand their borders.

> The reason is that they were using them as financial instruments and now they have less confidence on the West. So they are moving to other things.

Only partially correct. The reason why so many Chinese invested into the West is because the Chinese Government has strict monetary policies in place.

We have all seen news of people becoming miljonairs, billionaire's and then they leave for another country. The issue is that this was happening a lot in China. Rich folks made their money in China and then took the money outside the country. The issue was that they converted that money into foreign assets, what drain the national currency reserve (mostly dollars).

Like 12+ years ago the government implemented strict rules, disallowing money to be transferred out of the country, if it exceeded a specific amount. Its been a long time and i do not remember the exact limit. But there is used to be a backdoor, that if you knew the right people, and it was a company investment or other investment that build up soft power of China in the West. And voila, money flowed out that way. Of course, not for normal citizens ;)

O, you are investing a million or 5 into some painting. Well, now that money got transferred out of the country but the value (as in the painting) is now in the US, EU, ... Its the same reason why we had a TON of movies being made with Chinese backers. It was all used as a way to launder money out of China.

That means, if the Chinese government confiscated your assets at home, you had value in other countries to be tapped. Its not coincidence that a lot of rich folks their families study in the west and live in the west but the husband/family head works in China. Its a way of protection. And the West where if you leave a country, there is no real check on you leaving, China is different.

A few years ago, with Covid, China was in constant lockdowns, areas sealed off. The big cities like Shanghai, entire area's felt like prisons the moment somebody tested positive. So a lot of people with money tried even harder to get out.

It was around that time, even more stricter laws got introduced regarding "foreign investments". The whole backdoor regarding "foreign investments" has been restricted and is under much more scrutiny if you want to bring money out of China.

Hong Kong used to be a exit door but that has also been under a lot more pressure.

Its not that Chinese have less confidence in the West but that the government has "advised" that investing at home is the "better choice" for you and your family.

That means, if you do not want to be investigated and jailed. A lot of rich celebrities have been publicly investigated and jailed for short times. Charges like tax evasion was a thing. Until they paid a nice big sum to the government (with some money sticking on the edges), and a very, VERY public apology about their bad behavior. What in turn keeps the rest in place. As in, sure, you can play around but do not get too big for your bridges and think about moving money out of the country.

Getting money out of China, unless you have some connections is a hard thing. The level of control is much larger then 2010, and has only gotten worse with time.

You think about setting up a company in the West? You better be sure its registered in China (forgot the branch) or you can enjoy jail time when found out. Its all about tracking where money goes and ensuring control.

Its the same reason you see a lot of Chinese companies that used to be in China, now having head seats in Singapore etc. People using that route to get assets out.

So no, its not just about the West becoming less interesting, and people being more patriotic, its literally about way more financial and people control, what in turn affects that massive money flow from China into outside assets.

Funny thing, you ever wonder why so many, just BAD movies have been coming out the last 15 years. Check the investments and the money trail.

Its because even if the movie loses money, what then gets reported as a lost value in China, part of the money is still transferred out sideways. O, we spend 20 million on X movie (but it looks like a 2 million budget movie). O, ... i wonder what happened to those other million. We earned only 1 million from the movie sales, so we "lost" 19 million. Reality is that a lot of that money simply flowed somewhere else. 101 money laundry ..

I'm not convinced that the first point has necessarily affected the premium art space unless you're referring to the spill in effects. TFA talks about a space in Art Basel costing 100k - the target clientele for all intents and purposes are completely unaffected by the recent economic problems. Some have gotten even richer if anything

> - it’s way easier and cheaper to launder money through cryptocurrency casinos than art auctions

Sure art sales can be used to launder money, but that can't be the majority of sales. Doesn't laundering rely on being masked by a larger legitimate cash flow?

I think a much more significant portion of the art market is people speculating on prices and people collecting to look cool. Both of which are highly sensitive to changes in mood and sentiment as described in the section of the article talking about Beth Rudin DeWoody .

> it’s way easier and cheaper to launder money through cryptocurrency casinos than art auctions

Art was always a favorite way to launder money. This is a good point.

The conflict started long before 1948. Hint: creation of the State of Israel is an effect of the conflict, not its cause.

> The public is not conscious of how big of a deal the war in Ukraine is.

My sincerest desire is that there’s a peaceful resolution to this conflict before they’re forced to realize it.

Collectors are different from speculators or investors. Collectors want something for personal reasons, whatever they are.

Speculators are just trying to buy low and sell high. Investing has overlap with speculating, but it's generally more long term.

I think this is important to understand when considering buying collectables. You have to know the different types of people you're bidding against, whether it's an out of print magic the gathering card or a painting.

Collectibles have a lot of friction, and being physical they have a lot of middlemen and questions. If I want to speculate on an investment, even property would be far more liquid, let alone something disambiguated like company stock. I think investing in physical collectibles for a quick flip is pretty dumb. Why not buy domains related to the same subject? Far easier

Labubu

A popular hot take, but if that were the case, the art market should have collapsed when NFTs were booming, and recovered after they disappeared. Unless you can give a credible alternative that has eclipsed both.