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winterismute 3 days ago

I read this analysis of the SMR farm announcement in Canada a few months ago and I found it quite insightful: https://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2025/5/11/the-first-te...

mikestorrent 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Depressing, but it shows the typical faults of most Canadian projects these days. Massive government spend on a project doomed to fail by economic analysis before it's even online; and no takeaways for the Canadian people to actually get momentum going.

If we wanted to do SMRs right, the goal should be to build one or more SMR production factories, here in Canada, where we manufacture N reactors per month, that fit onto train cars, and can be delivered to qualified, secure sites around the world. Instead, we're paying massive cash out to GE Hitachi, and so the end result will never be "the capability of building and deploying SMRs", it will be "4 unprofitable SMRs in a facility and $4.4 billion a unit if we want more of them to lose money on".

Obviously this is doomed to fail; the units should cost like $100M max so they have positive ROI within a few years. If the unit will never beat solar in $/megawatt for operating and fueling costs, and won't pay for its own construction cost before its lifetime ends, it should never have been constructed; the entire thing is catabolic, all of the work and carbon that goes into it is an utter waste. Everyone involved should just do something else with their lives if we're going to approach it this way.

What's the point? Why do such small-minded people get authority over grand projects?

tomComb 3 days ago | parent [-]

It’s usually about well connected companies lobbying for free money. It’s the sort of thing that keeps Bell and others afloat and guarantees they never have to get competitive.

The gross thing is seeing the public cheer it on.

mikestorrent 3 days ago | parent [-]

I'm still half cheering it because at the very least it's still nuclear progress, and will help ensure we still have nuclear energy workers for another generation here. I worry a lot about what's been done to the Atomic Energy Workers in terms of whittling away at our capability to produce good energy workers with tribal wisdom and the Canadian nuclear culture of safety.

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

"there is no evidence today that SMRs will reduce electricity costs compared to continuing rapid investment in wind and solar."

mikestorrent 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Not with the approach we are showing, but if solar was built like this, it would fail too: remember Solyndra? Treating it as a bespoke construction project instead of as a commodity manufacturing project is the fundamental mistake that continues to result in nuclear costing too much.

Fuck's sake, it's just some hot rocks boiling a kettle, we make it out to sound like it's magic but we had the technology for this ~80 years ago. By now we should have the cost of a standard issue nuclear plant down to way cheaper than anything else. Common layout, protocols, processes, software at all of them... could have been complete in 1989, honestly.

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent [-]

But solar isn't built like nuclear. Solar involves parallel exploration of device designs at very small scale, installed with massive redundancy and resilience. Many billions of PV cells have been manufactured. The real cost decline driver is manufacturing automation. Nuclear, even SMRs, have orders of magnitude coarser granularity.

If you want "hot rocks", it's probably much cheaper to just resistively heat them with cheap solar (you don't even need inverters). This could store energy over many months and, pushed to its cost reduction limits this promises to be the final nail in the coffin for any dreams of a nuclear revival.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45012942

southernplaces7 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

>But solar isn't built like nuclear. Solar involves parallel exploration of device designs at very small scale, installed with massive redundancy and resilience. The real cost decline driver is manufacturing automation. Nuclear, even SMRs, have orders of magnitude coarser granularity.

Because the level of permitted development without being crushed by onerous regulatory burdens has been absurdly hamstrung on nuclear. All of the issues you add as "but" cases are things that many different innovations in a fluid market for research could have refined. The same has been done for many complex technologies over the decades, yet for nuclear there's always some excuse like the ones you mention. The comment you replied to is right. We're talking about something that since decades ago could have been improved enormously, and hasn't been thanks to a multitude of stupidities.

The United States Navy trusts extremely compact reactors (designed and working despite the DoD's notoriously lax financial and schedule stringency with defense contractors) to power its absolute most important, costly, defense-crucial war machines, and regularly docks them right inside the country's (and world's) largest urban areas, but somehow there's just no way to make nuclear power for civilian use more compact, cheaper and effective?

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent [-]

The regulatory burden argument doesn't explain why renewables are trouncing new nuclear in China. I view it as a universal excuse nuclear fans trot out to explain away inconvenient realities. They also never explain how the regulatory burden would be reduced in a way that doesn't compromise safety. And regulated safety is the price the nuclear industry pays for liability limits.

mikestorrent 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Solar involves parallel exploration of device designs at very small scale, installed with massive redundancy and resilience.

I am imagining a field of shipping-container sized units, each of which is a small modular reactor. Probably with solar panels on top ;) Still a few orders of magnitude different, but the idea here is that each unit is small enough that it can be manufactured, so that nuclear plant bring-ups don't take 30 years. Most of the cost is because of the tremendous generational effort involved in just a single project; what does it take to reduce the cost of the plants themselves to the point where they can really shine, economically?

The goal is to have reliable base load power generation so that we don't have to deal with the massive complexity and carbon footprint of battery plants all over the place to deal with peaky generation technologies like solar. I don't believe that that is a solved problem: using tremendous amounts of rare earth materials for limited-lifespan installations that don't even produce energy is possibly not the best use of our resources, considering it's almost all fossil fuel going into those logistics operations anyway, right? EROEI for a battery plant is going to be hard to achieve.

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

NPPs that small are a nonstarter, due to loss of economies of scale. Even SMRs are creeping up in size now to try to recapture the economies of traditional gigawatt power plants.

aledalgrande 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Your shipping container mention reminded me of The Box, a book that explains how shipping was so erratic, risky, slow, unreliable and incredibly expensive before the standardization into containers. Containers literally changed the world economy.

I think you are onto something. But this requires upfront investment, which alas, politicians are not for.

deepnotderp 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Thermal storage has very poor discharge rates unfortunately (usually slower than a day), as well as surprisingly high cost once you factor in inefficiencies and turbine cost

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent [-]

As was repeatedly explained in that other thread, thermal storage of the kind described there is inherently a long term storage technology, and this drives the design to minimize capex, not maximize round trip efficiency. The focus on efficiency is fundamentally misplaced there, as it becomes orders of magnitude less important compared to diurnal storage (which batteries appear to be well on their way to dominating.)

Long term storage and diurnal storage are complementary technologies, sort of like the different levels of cache and main memory in a computer memory hierarchy. Combining them appropriately reduces cost vs. using just one of them.

Anyway, the technology as described would produce heat at 600 C for as little as $3/GJ, which nuclear would have a hard time competing with.

deepnotderp 3 days ago | parent [-]

$3/GJ is $108/MWH which any large scale fission buildout would easily beat for thermal energy costs

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent [-]

You misplaced a decimal point. A MWH is 3.6 GJ, so it's $10.8/MWH.

$3/GJ is about the current Henry Hub price for natural gas, and as you should know cheap natural gas like this is what killed the "nuclear renaissance" in the US.

deepnotderp 3 days ago | parent [-]

Oh my bad, you’re right

Re: Nat gas, agreed, it’s not solar though, storage is much more expensive

Thermal energy still needs to drive a turbine to generate electricity

pfdietz 2 days ago | parent [-]

Sure. 600 C is about the temperature of steam in a coal fired power plant, so one of the use cases here is to take an old coal plant and replace the heat source. It's much higher temperature than the steam in a LWR, so the turbine can be smaller and cheaper. Also, no steam generator is needed as in a PWR.

deepnotderp 2 days ago | parent [-]

Yes but one of the reasons that coal is being replaced by gas is because of the capex of the steam turbine

pfdietz 2 days ago | parent [-]

Yes? That doesn't mean the capex of a steam turbine for this application would be unaffordable, or that this wouldn't have superior economics to nuclear (which also has a steam turbine, and a more expensive one).

torginus 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

This is concern trolling. The key to nuclear economics is speed of construction, and controlling costs, and not caving to safety pearl-clutchers (that is, adding cost and delays for 'safety measures; meant to appease the public, not things deemed necessary by experts and regulators).

But the key is speed. If you tie up $20B for 20 years uselessly, there's no way you can make a profit on anything.

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent [-]

You're just trying to smear a conclusion you don't like with fatuous insults.

The argument that this time, for sure, nuclear will be much cheaper has worn quite thin. Why do you think anyone in power is going to listen that song again?

BTW, do you think the dominance of renewables over new nuclear construction in China is due to "pearl clutching" there?

torginus 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

There's no conclusion or root cause in the article. It just suggests that since the Canadians had cost overruns and delays, it's impossible to build reactors on time and budget.

Yet China has managed to build those plants exactly around those costs and budgets - I have seen this argument so many time, around high speed rail, where Americans failed at infrastructure and deemed it 'uneconomical', then when China succeeded they smeared them for building probably in 'an evil way' or what.

Let me turn your question back at you - if China is doing so well on renewables, why is it that they're still building tens of gigawatts of nuclear capacity with hundreds more planned?

Even the linked article admits that 'Solar GWh' is not comparable to nuclear GWh because if you add the wattage of panels together you get a meaninglessly big number.

If you are planning around a 24/7 available power source, you need to overbuild solar by 20x I estimate, and the article admits, their calculations do not take storage into account (which you simply would not need if you had an always available power source.

China leads on solar panels, equipment and batteries, yet they are the biggest investors into nuclear today, I think that says enough about solar (and wind) not being able to economically substitute for nuclear.

torginus 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Also a different angle - economics. If you take 20 years to build a reactor, then the interest that investment assuming an 5% YoY, would be ~2.7x the original purchase price. Your yearly profits wont be enough to pay the interest at that point.

You are right - by these standards it makes no economic sense to build a nuclear reactor, but the standards only exist because of the positively lethargic Western work moral.

pfdietz 3 days ago | parent [-]

It's never nuclear's fault, is it? Like communism to the true believer, nuclear can never fail, it can only be failed. There's always an excuse.

I think the world has grown tired of the excuses and has largely moved on. You laggards will be coming along soon enough.

torginus 3 days ago | parent [-]

You seem to misunderstand me - I'm not some nuclear fanboy, but I'm looking for a powerplant solution that's 3 things: universal (unlike hydro), always available (unlike renewables) and sustainable (unlike gas and coal).

It seems that with SMRs, nuclear is finally getting to that state. I would like to ask you - what is your problem with it?

For me I wouldn't like to live next to a nuclear power plant, but I'd overwhelmingly prefer living there compared to a chemical plant - and there are a lot more of those everywhere.

Plants are huge investment of time and effort and I believe the costs mainly come down sabotage to pearl clutchers like the Greenpeace folks who think every plant is going to turn into Chernobyl, bureaucrats with their own loyalties and agendas of preserving a lucrative status quo and a huge civilizational laziness in the West results in a lack of will to get together and see things through in a timely manner.