> Can you attribute it directly to tariffs?

All economists and financial analysts seem to say so:

“It will be difficult for the U.S. to avoid a recession if the tariffs stay at the level that’s been announced,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors.

"Fong says that could lead to changes in businesses’ cost structures, such as downsizing operations and laying off workers."

https://time.com/7275987/trump-tariffs-global-economy-recess...

"J.P.Morgan ratcheted up its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, as brokerages scrambled to revise their forecast models with tariff distress threatening to sap business confidence and slow down global growth."

https://www.reuters.com/markets/jpmorgan-lifts-global-recess...

"industries impacted by tariffs have shed tens of thousands of jobs."

"Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, observed job growth in tariff-impacted sectors is negative, while those not affected by tariffs have seen slower growth but remain in positive territory."

https://fortune.com/2025/09/08/tariff-job-losses-trump-trade...

“Tariffs represent a negative supply shock, which hurts production and raises prices – a much smaller scale of what we experienced in the pandemic,” Nationwide economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote earlier this year.

https://thehill.com/business/5488614-us-economy-adds-22k-job...

That's not attribution that's just a deferral.