> Jobs reports just don't seem at all to square away with the vast anecdotal accounts from both employed and unemployed individuals across a swath of industries.

Agreed and on multiple fronts.

e.g. I can imagine that white collar workers may not claim unemployment due to a combination of embarrassment/"I don't need it as much as other folks" so the numbers are probably under-reported there.

I've also heard it's bad for recent grads but then a recent grad I know sent me the below:

"I’ve been hearing this a lot lately, and honestly, it’s pretty silly. Yes, tech majors are definitely over saturated, but in my opinion, you shouldn’t be able to go to school for four years, do the bare minimum the entire time, and get a great job after college. From my experience, everyone who worked really really hard and knew their stuff got to a place that they’re happy with"

The above could have been what I said back in 2002 right after the dotcom boom. In other words, it's unclear if companies are hiring fewer junior folks, junior folks were benefiting from ZIRP/boom market or a combination of both.

What you said is how the USA worked for my entire life until the H1B saturation finally reached a critical point! Young men and women would find jobs after college, it was NORMAL to have that be the case. What's going on right now is NOT normal. I got a job right out of college in 1995 with a CS degree--in fact, I had two offers, and I was nothing special. People with actual connections did really, really well back then. It was an optimistic time, and yes, Clinton was President, but he lucked out with the dot com era boom. It obviously imploded by 2001 or so.