> I think, for example, if China experiences a disaster in the next few decades, our ability to manufacture physical goods at the quality and price they do will be set back decades or longer.

Decade perhaps, but probably not longer. We already build a lot of stuff around the world. The US makes things that we did in the 1950s when the US was the world manufacturing powerhouse - but we do so on about 1/10th as many people in manufacturing while population as doubled. We could switch many people to manufacturing - which to a large part would be automation of things China does by hand and in the end be better off - but that decade of switch we are all worse off because those jobs people are doing mostly have value.

Chinese industrial robot density per worker is greater than in the US. I do think want to speculate on cause, but manufacturing is markedly less advanced than our peers. I used to think we were the most sophisticated actors in the world stage, and the rest of the world was living decades behind us, but now I think in a lot of ways we have already been passed. In a few more generations China will look back and wonder how they fell from ascendancy to decadence and decay.