Vim and emacs have definitely lost the main mindshare, but development on those projects is still very strong. Their main focus has never been on mass adoption, so how can you really compete with projects whose main goal is to eat the world?

There was a well attended talk "We lost the war" at the CCC congress twenty years ago. There are many reasons one can come up with why. It was always an uphill battle. You seem to delight in the current state of affairs due to other political concerns.

Big tech no longer cares about appearing to be revolutionaries fighting for good and ppl are disillusioned

The most recent Stack Overflow survey have vim at 25% and neovim at 14% for the question "Which development environments and AI-enabled code editing tools did you use regularly over the past year, and which do you want to work with over the next year?" Even more interesting is that for the 2023 survey Vim and Neovim were at 22.3% and 11.8% respectively.

If the goal is to get more than 50% usage statistics then yeah, you can say they lost, but are dev tools only valid/useful/viable if they have a majority of developers using them? I say they've had tremendous success being able to provide viable tools with literally zero corporate support and a much smaller user base.